\u3000\u30 Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co.Ltd(003006) 77 Intco Medical Technology Co.Ltd(300677) )
Key investment points
Event: the company released] the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022, and achieved an operating revenue of 16.24 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 17.4%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 7.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after non deduction was 7.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%. In 2022q1, the operating revenue was 2.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 66%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 80 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 97.8%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after non deduction was 1.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 106.5%.
The performance growth was in line with expectations, and the decline in glove prices led to a decline in performance. The company's performance growth in 2021 is generally in line with expectations. In 2022q1, due to the sharp decline in glove prices and the high base in the same period last year, the revenue and profit decreased significantly year-on-year. At present, the prices of nitrile gloves and PVC gloves have been reduced to a low level. It is expected that there will be little room for subsequent decline. After the production capacity is cleared, the price is expected to rise, which will drive the bottom of the company's performance growth.
Capacity expansion continued to accelerate and competitiveness continued to increase. Since its listing, the company has continued to expand its production capacity. The production capacity of disposable gloves has increased from 7.7 billion in 2014 to 75 billion in 2021, including about 30 billion PVC gloves and 45 billion nitrile gloves. It has become the world's largest manufacturer of PVC gloves and the world's largest manufacturer of non natural latex gloves. At present, the company's capacity expansion is advancing rapidly, and has built several large disposable glove production bases in Shandong, Anhui and Jiangxi. At the same time, the company has steadily promoted the project of Anhui Huaibei Intco Medical Technology Co.Ltd(300677) protective articles Industrial Park. The project of Shandong Qingzhou with an annual output of 3.3 billion high-end nitrile medical gloves and Anhui Huaining with an annual output of 40 billion (40 million boxes) high-end medical gloves is expected to reach more than 100 billion by the end of 2022, In the future, it will become the world's largest manufacturer of disposable gloves.
The rehabilitation nursing sector is accelerating and is expected to contribute to incremental performance. At present, the company's Zhenjiang wheelchair production base has an annual output of 500000 manual wheelchairs, 50000 electric wheelchairs and other rehabilitation physiotherapy instruments and products. Meanwhile, in the first half of 2021, the company signed the investment agreement of Intco Medical Technology Co.Ltd(300677) intelligent rehabilitation equipment Industrial Park project with the Management Committee of Zhenjiang Economic and Technological Development Zone to invest in the construction of Intco Medical Technology Co.Ltd(300677) intelligent rehabilitation equipment Industrial Park project, with a total investment of about US $308 million. At present, the company continues to accelerate in the field of rehabilitation nursing, and is expected to gradually contribute to incremental performance in the future.
Profit forecast and rating. We expect that the EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 2.88 yuan, 3.48 yuan and 3.94 yuan respectively, corresponding to the current stock price valuation of 12 times, 10 times and 9 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the order is not as expected; Risk of glove price decline.
