\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Quanxinhao Co.Ltd(000007) 86 Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) )
The company released the first quarterly report of 2022: Q1 achieved a revenue of 4.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 10.47%, a net profit attributable to the parent of 560 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 7.28%, and a deduction of non net profit of 540 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 4.59%. The company's gross profit margin and net profit margin were 28.39% and 12.1% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of -2.46 PCT and -058 PCT.
Joint reorganization of Yuanda Hongyu: Beixin waterproof, a wholly-owned subsidiary, plans to invest 787 million to acquire 70% shares of Yuanda Hongyu (Tangshan) and Yuanda Hongyu (Suzhou) through equity acquisition and cash capital increase.
Gypsum board profit growth, waterproof profit short-term pressure: ① gypsum board sales volume is expected to be affected by the epidemic and real estate boom, but the price is estimated to increase year-on-year, mainly due to the increase of cost + further increase of market share and the exercise of pricing power by the company (the market share of production capacity and sales volume in 2021 is about 68%, year-on-year + 8pct). ② There is still much room to improve the keel matching rate. It is expected that the epidemic will affect the demand for medium and high-end decoration and logistics. ③ Waterproof profits continued to be under pressure, and the end pressure of raw materials continued. The average prices of 22q1 asphalt and acrylic acid were + 22.4% and + 42.2% year-on-year respectively, and + 6.7% and - 7.5% month on month.
Waterproof integration continues, and North China plans to make efforts: we expect Yuanda Hongyu industry to rank around the top 10: ① Yuanda Hongyu Tangshan base covers an area of 168 mu, with a capacity of 80 million square meters of modified asphalt waterproof coiled materials, 40 million square meters of molecular waterproof coiled materials and 150000 tons of environmental protection waterproof coatings (data source: Yuanda Hongyu official website). Anhui Suzhou base was completed and put into operation in July 2021. ② In 2021, Yuanda Hongyu's revenue (including Tangshan + Suzhou) was 936 million and its net profit was 106 million. ③ In 2022, Yuanda Hongyu ranked 9th on the list of top 500 preferred suppliers of China's real estate development enterprises, with a preferred rate of 3%. After the merger and acquisition of Yuanda Hongyu, we expect that the waterproof business of Beixin will be close to 5 billion. In 2021, the consolidated revenue of waterproof will be 3.871 billion + the revenue of Shanghai Taian from January to April 2021 + the revenue of Tianjin Aotai in 2021 (133 million in 2020) + the revenue of Chengdu Saite in 2021 (70 million in 2020) + the revenue of Yuanda Hongyu in 2021 will be 936 million. Yuanda Hongyu is a well-known waterproof enterprise in North China. After the joint reorganization, the layout will continue to be improved.
The management turnover was implemented and the "new North new" started again: in mid April, the company held the first meeting of the seventh board of directors, deliberated and approved the proposals on the election of the chairman, vice chairman, special committee and reappointment of the general manager of the seventh board of directors. The new team was fully implemented and the "new North new" was expected to set sail.
Other statements focus on: ① the total expense rate of the company during the period is 14.89%, with a year-on-year rate of -0.8pct, and the expense rates of sales, management, R & D and finance are -0.19pct, -0.64pct, -0.07pct and + 0.1pct respectively; ② The total income tax / profit is 6.01%, and that of 21q1-21q4 is 10.13%, 6.79%, 5.05% and 4.54% respectively. The low tax rate in 2021 is mainly due to preferential tax relief, additional deduction of tax law and tax credit of special equipment; ③ The net operating cash flow was - 412 million, and that of 21q1 was 157 million. Looking back on the Q1 performance in the past 10 years, only 2018 and 2021 were positive, and the rest were negative. The negative value in the first quarter was in line with the operation law of the industry; ④ Inventories and prepayments have little change, and the change of raw material reserves is not expected to be obvious. ⑤ The negative asset ratio of the company is only 26.83%. The health statement supports the company to issue the first phase of ultra short-term financing of 1 billion yuan, with a half year issuance interest rate of 2%.
Investment suggestions: it is suggested to continue to pay attention to ① the continuous expansion of gypsum board production capacity and continue to exercise the pricing power, ② the gradual growth of the second main business of waterproof, ③ the improvement of keel matching rate, and ④ the accelerated layout of mortar and coating. We expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to be 4.017 billion, 4.809 billion and 5.289 billion respectively. The dynamic PE corresponding to the share price on April 29 was 12x, 10x and 9x respectively, maintaining the "recommended" rating.
Risk warning: the risk of real estate policy fluctuation; Raw material price fluctuation risk.
