\u3000\u3000 Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) (688516)
Event: the performance forecast for 2021 was released on Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) January 13, 2022.
Key investment points
Benefiting from the high prosperity of the industry, the performance forecast of the leading component equipment exceeded the market expectation
Wind unanimously expects that the net profit attributable to parent company in Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) 2021 will be 320 million yuan, and the performance forecast of Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) will exceed the market expectation. It is expected that the net profit attributable to parent company in 2021 will be 330-340 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 110.2% – 120.1%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was RMB 300-320 million, a year-on-year increase of + 119.6% – 134.2%. In the single quarter of Q4, the net profit attributable to the parent company of Q4 is expected to be RMB 100-110 million, with a year-on-year increase of 15% – 33% and a month on month increase of 15% – 34%. The photovoltaic industry continues to enjoy a high boom. As the leader of module equipment series welding machine (the sales market share is 60% in 2020 and over 80% in 2021), the company has fully benefited.
Component equipment technology has fast iteration and wide equipment market space
The equipment renewal cycle brought by the technical iteration is shortened from the previous 2-3 years to 1.5 years. The key to the complete renewal of the subsequent series welding machine lies in the large-scale continuous penetration (the penetration rate of 182 / 210 in 2021 is only 20-30%), the silicon wafer thinning demand brought by hjt and high-precision series welding.
The market space of series welding machine is expected to double. At present, the mainstream is half piece of components. The popularity of three-piece and four piece will make the demand of series welding machine 1.5/2 times that of now. In addition, 12bb will increase the tooling demand (millions of single GW) on the basis of 9bb. As the leader of series welding machine, the company is expected to continue to benefit.
Rich technical reserves, multi domain layout driven growth
(1) semiconductor bonding machine: according to WeChat official account of November 29, 2021, Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) was awarded the first order of aluminum wire bonder in Wuxi Delhi core. In 2018, the company initiated the research and development of semiconductor bonding machine. In 2020, the bonding machine will be verified in the company and will be put on trial at the client in early 2021. K & S is the traditional leader of aluminum wire bonding machine, but it is not competitive in terms of delivery time and price. 1) Delivery period: the normal delivery period of K & S is 3-5 months. Due to excessive downstream demand, the delivery period in 2021 is 10-11 months, which is the best period for domestic substitution. In contrast, the Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) delivery period is only 2-3 months. 2) Price: Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) bonding machine is priced lower than K & S, and can still maintain a high gross profit margin. Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) with its competitiveness in delivery time and price, it won the first batch of aluminum wire bonding machine orders from Wuxi delixin, breaking through the monopoly pattern of K & S and is expected to continue to improve its market share.
(2) silicon wafer single crystal furnace: in April 2021, the company increased its capital to hold songporcelain Electromechanical, which was extended to the silicon wafer link. In October, the company won the bid for Yuze semiconductor’s “1600 single crystal furnace procurement” project (corresponding to 210 silicon wafers) of 140 million yuan (tax included), which is the first time that the company has obtained the GW order of single crystal furnace, and the photovoltaic silicon wafer equipment has been expanded smoothly.
(3) lithium battery equipment: it is a high growth business with a low base. On November 30, 2021, the company announced that it had won the honeycomb order of 130 million yuan (including tax), and achieved a breakthrough in order magnitude and customer quality.
Profit forecast and investment rating: with the downstream production expansion + stock technology iteration, we raised the net profit attributable to the parent company from RMB 320 / 4.4 / 580 million to RMB 340 (up 6%) / 5.1 (up 16%) / 660 (up 14%) million respectively from 2021 to 2023, corresponding to 56 / 37 / 28 times of the current share price PE, maintaining the “overweight” rating.
Risk tip: the R & D of new products is less than the market expectation, and the market competition worsens.
