\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 899 Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) )
Event: the company plans to acquire four asset packages of Dunan group with RMB 7.682 billion (including 70% equity of lithium mine in arila gocuo Salt Lake, Tibet). On April 29, 2022, the company announced that the company signed the cooperation agreement with Dunan Holding Group Co., Ltd. and China Zheshang Bank Co.Ltd(601916) Hangzhou branch. The company plans to invest in the acquisition of four asset packages under Dunan group.
It is possible to further deepen the cooperation with Tibet Geological Exploration Bureau after Julong copper mine. The minority shareholder of Lago resources company is Tibet Shengyuan mining group, and the actual controller of Shengyuan mining is Tibet Geological Exploration Bureau. Previously, the company participated in 2.87% equity of Julong copper mine. Its subsidiaries participate in many mineral projects to be developed. The company may further strengthen cooperation with Shengyuan mining and even Tibet Geological Exploration Bureau.
Lagocuo Salt Lake is a large lithium salt lake resource scarce in the world. (1) Large amount of resources: lagocuo Salt Lake is one of the largest lithium salt lakes to be developed in China, ranking fifth in China and top 20 in the world. By the end of 2012, the average concentration of lithium ion in lacuo salt lake was 2.14 million mg / L; The ratio of magnesium to lithium is 3.32. (2) Scarce pure lake surface brine resources, resource quantity is reserves. Liquid brine mines can be roughly divided into lake surface brine and potential brine. The lithium resources of the former are located in the lake surface brine lake. The resources are easy to measure and the brine mining is simple. Lagocuo belongs to this kind of pure lake surface brine resources, which is very scarce. (3) The ratio of magnesium to lithium is low, and lithium can be extracted directly from lake water by adsorption method. The magnesium lithium ratio of lagocuo Salt Lake is only 3.32, which is far lower than that of Qinghai Salt Lake and belongs to a low level in the global salt lake. (4) The process of the project may be adjusted to the combined process of “adsorption + membrane treatment”. The output of phase I is planned to be adjusted to 20000 tons / year of lithium carbonate. After the construction and operation of phase II of the project, the output is planned to be increased to 50000 tons / year of lithium carbonate. According to the announcement of the company, the construction scale of the project has large production expansion space, and there is also the possibility of major adjustment of the mining process and technical route. A more environmentally friendly and economical “adsorption + membrane treatment” combined process can be adopted. The process is mature, with little difficulty in implementation and short construction cycle.
The transaction consideration of single ton LCE is at the midstream level, and the lithium concentration of the purchased Salt Lake is at the midstream and upstream. The company acquired the equity of Jinshi mining, and the resource transaction consideration is 3269 yuan / ton LCE. The overall unit resource acquisition price is higher than that of overseas projects, but it is still lower compared with Chinese projects. The construction of the project has not been completed, and large capital expenditure is still required in the follow-up. However, considering that lagocuo Salt Lake is a scarce large salt lake in China, the reliability of development and operation in China is relatively high, and the policy risk is low, we think this transaction is at a relatively reasonable level.
After the completion of the project, it is expected to fully benefit from the industry boom and recover the investment cost quickly. The full cost of lagocuo project is 34951 yuan / ton. If calculated according to the average price of 143000 yuan / ton in 2021 (including tax), the average annual after tax net profit of the project will reach 779 million yuan, and the economic benefit will be greatly improved.
Investment suggestion: the company may be ushering in a period of performance and valuation. The output guidance of copper and gold in 2022 is greatly improved compared with that in 2021. The superimposed copper and gold price is expected to remain high. We continue to be optimistic about the realization of the company’s alpha logic. We maintain the company’s profit forecast. It is expected that from 2022 to 2024, the company will realize net profit attributable to the parent company of 27.4 billion yuan, 31.6 billion yuan and 32.4 billion yuan. The PE corresponding to the closing price on April 29 is 11x, 9x and 9x, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk tips: uncertain delivery risk, construction and operation risk of lagocuo Salt Lake project, market risk, etc.
