\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 238 Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) )
Event overview
On April 27, the company released the first quarterly report of 2022. The total revenue of 2022q1 was 23.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 45.2%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 27.2%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 2.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 30.2%. Analysis and judgment:
The revenue performance is stable and the sales volume of ea'an is bright
The company's total revenue has maintained a steady growth, mainly due to the rapid increase of new products of GAC ea'an and GAC motor. In 2022q1, the sales of GAC passenger cars and GAC ea'an were 90000 and 45000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 21.8% and + 154.8% respectively. The company is in a new round of product development independently. In addition to gs4plus, Yingbao was listed in August 2021, and its sales volume has risen to more than 10000 in October; GAC motor's new second-generation gs8 was officially launched in December 2021, and the sales volume is expected to climb rapidly. In March 2022, the sales volume of ea'an exceeded 20000 for the first time. We expect that the modified aionsplus and the new aionlxplus will further drive the rapid increase of sales volume.
Joint venture profits increased and losses decreased slightly
The volume and price of Japanese joint ventures increased simultaneously, contributing to the main profit increment. In 2022q1, the sales volume of Japanese joint ventures of the company increased rapidly. The sales volume of GAC Honda and GAC Toyota were 212000 and 247000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 16.8% and + 23.4% respectively. The net profit of single vehicle also increased rapidly. The investment income of joint venture single vehicle under 50% equity reached 8800 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 0600 yuan and a month on month increase of + 2100 yuan.
The gross profit margin is under pressure due to the bulk rise, and the effect of expense control is remarkable. Due to the large increase in 2022q1 and the decline of subsidies, the company's gross profit margin in a single quarter was under pressure. The gross profit margin in 2022q1 was 6.1%, year-on-year + 0.6pct and month on month -4.1pct. The company has achieved remarkable results in cost rate control and reduced losses independently. The rates of sales / management / Finance / R & D expenses of 2022q1 company were 5.0% / 4.1% / 0.01% / 1.0% respectively, which decreased on a month on month basis. According to the net profit attributable to the parent company - investment income, the company's independent 2022q1 loss was 1.22 billion yuan, narrowed by 260 million yuan month on month. We judge that gac-e'an's loss has expanded due to the rise of battery cost, and gac-motor's profit has gradually increased.
The launch of JuLang hybrid trumpchi 2025 will realize the electrification of the whole system
On April 26, GAC motor released a brand-new hybrid technology brand under the electrification strategy - JuLang hybrid. JuLang hybrid has a dual system hybrid technology route, including GMC dual motor series parallel hybrid system developed by ourselves and ths power split hybrid system cooperated with Toyota. The two systems have their own advantages in power and driving experience. We expect to accelerate the replacement of fuel vehicles.
The speed of hybrid models is increased, and GAC motor aims to realize the electrification of all models in 2025. Following the Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) electrification strategy, GAC motor has made every effort to promote the implementation of HEV and PHEV hybrid technology, and built the giant wave hybrid gmc2 for the first time 0 model GAC motor yingku also appeared at the press conference. In addition, GAC motor will successively launch hybrid models of Yingbao and M8 this year, and plans to realize the electrification of the whole series by 2025. We believe that hybrid vehicles have both low use cost and long endurance, and the demand for fuel vehicles in non licensed cities is expected to grow rapidly.
Investment advice
As the leader of the first-line Japanese joint venture brand, the company is expected to continue to benefit from the growth of demand for replacement and additional purchase; With the continuous improvement of independent competitiveness, the replacement of fuel vehicles is accelerated under the drive of hybrid and intelligent dual core. The product strength of ai'an continues to be verified, and the mixed reform stimulates the vitality of state-owned enterprises, which is expected to take off with the help of the capital market. Maintain the company's profit forecast from 2022 to 2024. It is estimated that the company's revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 86.26/98.1/106.18 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 9.98/117.6/12.7 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS of 0.95/1.12/1.21 yuan, corresponding to the closing price of A-Shares of 10.95 yuan / share on April 27, 2022, and PE of 11 / 10 / 9 times. Maintain the "buy" rating of A-Shares of the company.
Risk tips
The sales volume of joint venture models is lower than expected; The profit of independent brand is less than expected; The mitigation of core failure is lower than expected.
