\u3000\u3000 Runa Smart Equipment Co.Ltd(301129) (301129)
Core view:
The proportion of carbon emissions at the heating end is high, and the heating area is increasing year by year. The "double carbon" policy promotes smart heating and energy saving. At present, the heating area is increasing year by year. In 2020, the urban central heating area has reached 9.9 billion square meters. The completed area of new houses in the heating area is 300-500 million square meters every year, and the heat demand shows an increasing trend. At the same time, the carbon emission from building operation accounts for a large proportion. In 2019, the total carbon emission from northern heating areas was 1.23 billion tons of carbon dioxide, accounting for 12% of the total carbon emission in China. Under the background of "double carbon", the heating industry will face the pressure of energy conservation and emission reduction, aggravating the contradiction between heat source supply and demand, and heating energy conservation needs to be promoted urgently. Smart heating is expected to become the direction of the future heating energy-saving industry and help the heating industry achieve energy conservation and efficiency.
Runa Smart Equipment Co.Ltd(301129) the whole industry chain product coverage + software and hardware integration mode to build competitive advantage. At present, comparable companies in the industry Huizhong Instrumentation Co.Ltd(300371) , Tiangang Co., Ltd. and Keya of University of technology are hardware or software suppliers. Runa Smart Equipment Co.Ltd(301129) the business model of "product + service + scheme" is adopted, and the software and hardware products cover the whole industrial chain, so as to realize the full coverage of the core links of heating from the primary heating pipe network, to the heat station and building unit, and then to the heat users, as well as the whole process monitoring, analysis, regulation and prediction from heat source supply, pipe network transmission and distribution to terminal heat consumption, so as to reduce the cost of interconnection between different equipment, It helps the company accurately grasp the product data deviation, accurately control the direction and specific range to be adjusted, improve the accuracy of data utilization, and build the company's competitive advantage.
The company took the lead in applying artificial intelligence to strengthen its technical advantages, and its capacity expansion is expected to expand its scale. In 2020, the company cooperated with Vito, one of the largest research and technology organizations in Europe, to develop intelligent heating system and introduced European advanced technology "intelligent heating network control system". Artificial intelligence technology has entered the trial operation stage, and the data accumulated by the company on the big data processing platform in the past is expected to help the iteration of artificial intelligence. In addition, production capacity is still one of the factors restricting the development of the company. In 2020, the monthly peak of production capacity utilization rate in the peak season of ultrasonic scale reached 171%. At present, the company has planned to build a new production base, which is expected to be completed in five years, which is expected to improve the company's production capacity and expand the scale.
Investment suggestion: we expect the company to achieve operating revenue of 508 / 670 / 908 million yuan from 2021 to 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 22% / 32% / 35%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 173 / 237 / 325 million, with a year-on-year increase of 33% / 37% / 37%; The current share price corresponding to PE is 33 / 24 / 18 times respectively. For the first coverage, give a "recommended" rating.
Risk warning: the risk that the demand expansion is less than expected; The risk that the product iteration is not as expected; Risk that business expansion is less than expected.
