\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 886 Sdic Power Holdings Co.Ltd(600886) )
Event:
The company released its 2021 annual report and the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2021, the annual revenue was 43.682 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 11.09%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.437 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 55.82%; In the first quarter of 2022, the revenue was 11.042 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 20.1%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.038 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 14.91%.
Comments
The double rise in volume and price led to a year-on-year increase of 11.1% in annual revenue in 21 years. In terms of power generation, the cumulative power generation of the company's holding enterprises in the whole year of 21 was 153865 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 3.61%. In terms of electricity types, although Liangyang power station with an installed capacity of 4.5 million KW has been put into operation successively, due to the dry water from Yalong River, the hydropower generation capacity is 88.257 billion kwh, a year-on-year decrease of 0.22%; Thermal power generation reached 59.011 billion kwh, an increase of 7.03% year-on-year; Wind power generation was 4.786 billion kwh, an increase of 40.65% year-on-year; Photovoltaic power generation was 1.615 billion kwh, an increase of 25.17% year-on-year. In terms of electricity price, the annual average on grid electricity price in 21 years was 0.319 yuan / kWh, an increase of 5.98% year-on-year. Among them, hydropower is 0.255 yuan / kWh, with a year-on-year increase of 2.71%; Thermal power 0.389 yuan / kWh, an increase of 7.25% year-on-year; Wind power 0.484 yuan / kWh, with a year-on-year increase of 0.97%; PV 0.918 yuan / kWh, with a year-on-year increase of 2.83%. The increase of thermal power generation combined with high coal prices put pressure on Q1 performance in 21 and 22 years. The performance of Q1 company decreased by 55.82% / 14.91% year-on-year in 21 and 22 years respectively. We believe that there are three main reasons: (1) the increase of social power consumption combined with the decrease of hydropower generation pushed up the thermal power generation: the utilization hours of low gross profit thermal power in 21 years was 4971 hours, an increase of 326 hours year-on-year; The power generation increased by 7.03% year-on-year, and the proportion in the total power generation increased by 1.17 percentage points year-on-year to 38.35%. (2) Coal prices continued to remain high: the average price of q5500 power end coal in Qinhuangdao in the whole year of 21 years increased by 47.58% year-on-year; The Q1 coal price in 22 years continued to run at a high level, rising rapidly from 788 yuan / ton on January 4 to 1605 yuan / ton on March 24, with an increase of 103.7%. The sharp rise in coal-fired costs led to a year-on-year increase of 42.54% / 30% in Q1 operating costs of the company in 21 / 22 years; The gross profit margin decreased by 15.61/4.89 percentage points year-on-year respectively. (3) Significant decline in investment income: the high cost of coal-fired makes the performance of joint-stock companies fluctuate greatly. Superimposed on the impact of the high base of investment income brought by the disposal of assets in 20 years, the investment income in 21 years was only 102 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 92.4%.
Liangyang has been fully put into operation, and its growth attribute has gradually become prominent. By the end of 2021, the company's installed capacity of clean energy was 243375 million KW, accounting for 67.2%, a year-on-year increase of + 4.53 PCT. In terms of hydropower, the installed capacity accounted for 57.33% at the end of 21. According to our calculation, Liangyang hydropower station in the stable operation period can contribute about 2.33 billion and 730 million performance increments to the water and electricity of Yalong River respectively; In terms of new energy, the installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic power reached 3.5725 million KW at the end of 21, accounting for 9.86% of the total installed capacity. The company proposes that the installed capacity of clean energy at the end of the 14th five year plan is 36 million KW, and the planned installed capacity of clean energy in 22-25 years will reach 11.663 million KW. The growth attribute of the company is gradually highlighted.
Profit forecast and Valuation: the electricity price of Liangyang is still uncertain, and the coal-fired cost is still high. The performance forecast is lowered. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 6 / 68.8 / 7.56 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024 (6.54 / 7.35 billion yuan from 22 to 23 years ago), corresponding to 12 / 10.5 / 9.5 times of PE, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: the risk of macroeconomic downturn, the risk of dry incoming water, the risk of downward electricity price under the influence of marketization, the risk of continuous rise of coal price, the risk that the development of new energy is less than expected, etc
