\u3000\u3000 Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) (603659)
Key investment points
The company expects that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 will be 468-569 million yuan, with a month on month increase of 3-25%, in line with market expectations. The company expects that the annual net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 will be RMB 1.7-1.8 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 154.63% to 169.61%, of which the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 will be RMB 468-569 million, with a year-on-year increase of 86% - 126% and a month-on-month increase of 3% - 25%, corresponding to a median value of RMB 519 million, with a month-on-month increase of 14%, in line with market expectations. In 2021, the net profit not attributable to the parent company was deducted by RMB 1.6-1.7 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 156.54% to 172.57%, of which the net profit not attributable to the parent company was deducted by RMB 443-543 million in 2021q4, with a month-on-month increase of 1% - 23%.
Negative Q4 shipments increased slightly month on month, and the integration led to steady profit growth. Under the influence of electricity policy, we expect the company to ship more than 25000 tons in 2021q4, with a slight increase month on month. In 2021, the company will ship 95000-100000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of nearly 60%. With the release of new capacity, we expect the company to ship 160000-180000 tons in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 60% +. In terms of profitability, the graphitization OEM price further rose to about 22000-24000 yuan / ton in 2021q4, driving the negative electrode cost to increase by about 2000 yuan / ton. In 2021, the self supply proportion of graphitization of the company reached about 65-70%. With the gradual release of 50000 tons of graphitization capacity in Inner Mongolia phase II, the self supply proportion further increased, We expect that the single ton profit of negative electrode (including graphitization) of 2021q4 company is about 12000 yuan / ton, which is flat and slightly increased month on month, and the profit contributed by 2021q4 negative electrode business is about 300 million yuan.
Negative electrode capacity expansion accelerated, supported continuous high growth, and actively distributed integration and cutting-edge technologies. With the release of 60000 tons of pre process capacity in Jiangxi by the end of 2021, we expect the negative electrode capacity of the company to reach 150000 tons; The company plans to build a 200000 t / a negative electrode material integration project in Qionglai, Sichuan, of which phase I is 100000 t. We expect to put it into operation in the second half of 2022, and the company's production capacity will reach 250000 t by the end of 2022. The company has increased the graphite production capacity. At present, the company's graphitization production capacity is 65000 tons, and the second phase of Inner Mongolia is 50000 tons. After the graphitization is completed and put into operation, the company's graphitization production capacity will exceed 120000 tons, and the proportion of self supply will be further improved. With the release of new capacity, we expect the company's shipment volume to reach 160000-180000 tons in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 60% +.
Diaphragm shipments increased month on month, and shipments in 2022 are expected to increase year-on-year. We expect that the company's shipment in 2021q4 will reach about 700 million square meters, a month on month increase of about + 20%, mainly from Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) . The annual shipment in 2021 will reach about 2 billion square meters, a year-on-year increase of 200%; In terms of profitability, we expect the single level profit to maintain 0.2 yuan / level +, contributing about 140 million yuan. In terms of integration, the company's base membrane is progressing smoothly, the Liyang Yuequan base membrane production line is running stably, the product qualification rate and comprehensive through rate continue to improve, and has 5 μ M ultra thin film production capacity. On the other hand, the domestic PVDF coating material and PAA binder independently developed by the company achieved a breakthrough, completed the product introduction of key customers, and further reduced customer costs
Profit forecast and investment rating: considering that the graphitization shortage will last until 2022, we adjusted the net profit attributable to the parent company from RMB 1773 / 2851 / 3988 million to RMB 1784 / 3007 / 4213 million from 2021 to 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 167% / 69% / 40%, corresponding to 56 / 33 / 24 times of PE. We gave 50xpe in 2022, corresponding to the target price of RMB 216.5, and maintained the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the sales volume is lower than expected and the profit level is lower than expected
