\u3000\u3 Bohai Water Industry Co.Ltd(000605) 006 Shandong Fiberglass Group Co.Ltd(605006) )
The company released the first quarterly report of 2022: Q1 achieved a revenue of 833 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 13%, a net profit attributable to the parent of 182 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 19.41%, and a deduction of non net profit of 180 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 22.39%. The gross profit margin and net profit margin of sales were 36.46% and 21.86% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.64 and + 1.17pct.
The price rise is the main reason, and the contribution increment of the third line of technological transformation:
In terms of price, the roving price of 22q1 was stable month on month and increased year on year. The average price of 2400tex winding direct yarn in Q1 was 6138 yuan / ton, year on year + 333 yuan / ton and month on month - 40 yuan / ton, which was basically stable.
In terms of cost, the cost of natural gas increased greatly. The price of natural gas in Yishui in Q1 was 3.9 yuan / m3, a year-on-year increase of + 0.69 yuan / m3. In 2019, the unit consumption of natural gas in Shanbo was 161 m3 / T. based on this, the unit natural gas cost was calculated to be + 111 yuan / T (only the calculation result, which may be high). Considering the impact of pyrophyllite price rise (less than that of natural gas) and freight price rise, we expect the profit per ton of Q1 glass fiber to still increase year-on-year.
In terms of sales volume, the third line 6 to 10 of the convertible bond raised investment project has been put into operation in 2021q4. Q1 is expected to contribute to the new output. However, due to the interference of transportation and downstream customer demand by the epidemic, we expect the sales volume of Q1 to increase slightly.
In addition, the thermal power business is expected to be affected by the rise in coal prices, and the profit performance will continue to be under pressure.
Sustained high export boom:
It is estimated that the increase of industry demand in 2022 will mainly come from exports, new energy vehicles and wind power. The supply of glass fiber in Europe is subject to the rising energy prices and high dependence on imports. In 2022q1, China exported 545500 tons of glass fiber and products, a year-on-year increase of + 49.7%, and the export amount was US $952 million, a year-on-year increase of + 49.6% (Zhuo Chuang information). In 2021, the company's export accounted for 13% of its revenue, the year-on-year growth rate of China's revenue was 30%, and the year-on-year growth rate of foreign revenue was 112%. Under the continuous high export boom, we expect the export proportion of 22q1 company to continue to increase.
Decrease in short-term borrowings:
Q1 company's total expense rate during the period was 10.07%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.74pct. Among them, the rates of sales, management, R & D and financial expenses were 0.57%, 3.2%, 3.33% and 2.97% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of -0.07pct, + 0.29pct, + 0.86pct and -0.33pct respectively. 22q1 ending short-term loan 127 million, opening 206 million, mainly due to the due repayment of some bank short-term loans, 1.006 billion in the same period last year.
Sustained growth, steady expansion of production and cost reduction of scale: the marginal increment of the company's production capacity mainly comes from cold repair and technical transformation. We estimate that the design capacity of the company will reach 410000 tons by the end of 2021. In addition, the company previously announced that it planned to carry out the cold repair and technical transformation of line 5 "6 to 17" in 2023, line 1 in 2024 and line 2 in 2025. It is expected that the annual output of line 2025 will be digitized, and China's total production capacity will reach 620000 tons.
Investment suggestions: continue to pay attention to ① the company's capacity elasticity, ② continuously reduce the cost after the cold repair and technological transformation capacity is put into operation, ③ the export boom continues, and ④ the product structure is upgraded. We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 671 million, 764 million and 850 million. On April 29, the corresponding PE of the share price will be 9x, 8x and 7x respectively. It will be covered for the first time and given a "recommended" rating.
Risk warning: macroeconomic downturn; The pace of industrial capacity launch is lower than expected; Fuel prices fluctuated sharply.
