\u3000\u3000 Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) (603816)
The company issued a performance forecast. The performance in 2021 met expectations and maintained the “buy” rating
In 2021, the net profit attributable to parent company is expected to be RMB 1.650-1.730 billion. Excluding the impact of goodwill impairment of RMB 484 million in 2020, the year-on-year growth is (the same below) 95% – 105% / 24% – 30% respectively, deducting the net profit not attributable to parent company of RMB 1.420-1.500 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 140% – 154% / 32% – 40%; In 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company of Q4 is estimated to be 412-492 million yuan, with a significant year-on-year turnaround / increase of 29% – 54%, and the net profit deducted from the non parent company is 307-387 million yuan, with a significant year-on-year turnaround / increase of 25% – 58%, which is in line with the market expectation. The category integration promoted by the big home strategy is expected to improve the store efficiency and maintain the profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.693/21.14/2567 billion yuan, with a corresponding EPS of 2.68/3.34/4.06 yuan, The current share price corresponding to PE is 23.2 / 18.6 / 15.3 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
The strategy of large household in-depth layout of domestic sales, sufficient driving force for the rise of high potential categories, and the improvement of single store, floor efficiency and customer unit price
Category: layout the integration of residential categories. In 2021, the leisure sofa will maintain a steady growth under the high base, the high potential categories of mattresses and functional sofas will perform strongly, and the customized home will gradually increase in volume, so as to realize the evolution of product sales to space sales and improve the rate of carrying orders; Channel: the reform bonus of organizational structure is still being released. The regional retail center continues to deconstruct the functions of dealers and empower dealers in multiple dimensions. The sinking of organization has promoted the growth of single store revenue and floor efficiency, and promoted the integration of categories. In 2021, the proportion of comprehensive stores and large stores will increase, and the customer single price is expected to continue to grow. Start the pilot warehouse distribution service, and the national promotion in the future is expected to further reduce the cost of dealers and encourage dealers to make efforts in front-end operation.
Export continued to grow at a high rate, and the strategic layout of Mexico’s production base is expected to enhance its influence in overseas markets
On December 14, 2021, the company announced that it plans to invest 1.037 billion yuan to build the production base in Monterrey, Mexico. It is expected that the first phase of the project will be completed and put into operation in 2023. The overall output of the project is expected to achieve an operating revenue of about 3.019 billion yuan and a total profit of 260 million yuan. Through the layout of the production base in Mexico, it is expected to effectively avoid tariffs and anti-dumping, It is expected to increase the breadth and depth of radiation to overseas markets and improve supply efficiency and export competitiveness.
Deepen the reform of organizational structure, promote the digital empowerment of retail dealers and improve the efficiency of channel operation
Organizational structure: in 2021, the company will adjust its organizational structure and re integrate the foreign trade value chain into manufacturing, R & D and supply chains; A separate business division is established for medium and Taiwan products and marketing functions are given to form a three-dimensional matrix of front office marketing, medium and Taiwan products and resource platform to improve synergy. Digital construction: put forward three functions of “cloud”, “management” and “platform”, which can respectively play the role of thickening the potential customer pool, improving the conversion rate and improving the user experience.
Risk tip: the recovery of demand in the household industry is less than expected, raw materials rise sharply, and the exchange rate fluctuates sharply
