\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 496 Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building(Group)Co.Ltd(600496) )
Key investment points
EPC orders were promoted rapidly, and the revenue increased sharply in 21 years
In 2021, the company achieved steel structure sales of 1.016 million tons, yoy + 34.0%, revenue of 15.14 billion yuan, yoy + 31.85%, net profit attributable to parent company / net profit deducted of 687 / 634 million yuan, yoy + 6.19% / + 7.42%. Engineering construction / public construction / commercial construction / EPC / patent authorization achieved revenue of RMB 6.43/23.2/18.8/41.7/0.4 billion respectively, yoy + 13.6% / + 33.8% / + 30.3% / + 78.7% / - 42.9%. The high growth of EPC business is mainly due to the accelerated promotion of a number of EPC key projects such as Shaoxing International Convention and Exhibition Center and Hangzhou Asian Games Baseball (base) center.
22q1, the company achieved 218200 tons of steel structure sales, yoy + 14.6%, corresponding to the revenue of 3.71 billion yuan / yoy + 34.6%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company of 179 million yuan / yoy + 35.55%. The sharp increase in performance was mainly due to the increase in the company's gross profit during the reporting period compared with the same period of the previous year.
High steel prices, excellent cost control and hedging against the decline of gross profit margin
Gross profit margin under pressure: the company's comprehensive gross profit margin recorded 13.40% in 21 years, a year-on-year decrease of 2.28pct compared with 20 years. We speculate that under the influence of supply-demand relationship and international bulk prices, China's steel price increased significantly at the beginning of 21 years and subsequently remained high. The average price of 20mm ordinary medium sector in China in 21 years increased by 38% compared with that in 20 years. The high operation of steel price put pressure on the business cost of the company. 22q1, the company's comprehensive gross profit margin recorded 13.34%, with a year-on-year / month on month ratio of -1.83 / + 1.14pct respectively; Excellent expense control hedged the decline of gross profit margin: the expense rate of the company in 21 years was 8.17%, which was 0.93pct lower than 9.10% in 20 years, which effectively hedged the decline of gross profit margin; In 22q1, the company's period expense rate was 8.54%, which was 2.01pct lower than that in 21q1. Speed up of inventory turnover: the inventory turnover days of 21q1 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4 were 47 / 41 / 39 / 34 days respectively, which decreased steadily quarter by quarter: the inventory at the end of 21q4 corresponded to 1.359 billion yuan, a decrease of 132 million yuan compared with 1.491 billion yuan at the end of 21q3. Cash flow under pressure: the net operating cash flow in 21 years was - 243 million yuan, which turned negative compared with 424 million yuan in 20 years, with an outflow of 667 million yuan, mainly due to the increase in cash paid for purchasing goods and receiving labor services; 22q1 net operating cash flow was - 284 million yuan, an increase of 270 million yuan over the same period in 21 years, mainly due to the year-on-year decrease in cash paid for purchasing goods and receiving labor services.
The issuance of convertible bonds helps to expand production capacity and lay out the future prospects of BIPV
Industry: there is enough demand space and the policy continues to increase. The steel structure association issued the "14th five year plan" of steel structure industry and the long-term goal of 2035 in October 21. It is proposed that by the end of 25 / 35, the consumption of steel structure in China will reach 140 / 200 million tons, accounting for more than 15% / 25% of the crude steel output, and the permeability of new steel structure buildings will exceed 15% / 40%. On March 11, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development issued the "14th five year plan for building energy conservation and green building development", emphasizing the vigorous development of steel structure buildings and encouraging hospitals, schools and other public buildings to give priority to steel structure buildings.
Company: 2 billion convertible bonds were successfully issued, production capacity expanded steadily, supply and demand driven, optimistic about the annual performance.
1) the main business of steel structure has developed rapidly: the cumulative newly signed contract amount of 22q1 was 4.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34%. In 2021, the company opened five new regional franchise orders with a corresponding contract amount of 200 million yuan, one of which is located in Yangzhou and successfully opened the Jiangsu market; The company's 2 billion yuan convertible bonds were successfully issued on April 28. Part of the raised funds will be used for the 200000 ton steel structure intelligent manufacturing industrial park project in Lu'an, Anhui Province, and the capacity expansion is expected to speed up;
2) multi-point flowering of digital business: in the past 21 years, the company's subsidiary responsible for digital business bimtek has achieved a "zero" breakthrough in external market development, successfully signed 10 projects including Ezhou airport, covering 5 provinces and regions, and is expected to contribute new profit growth points in the future;
3) BIPV business opens up new space for development: the company set up an associated company Seiko energy as early as 2014 to intervene in the whole industrial chain of distributed photovoltaic power station development, investment, operation and maintenance. In 2021, Seiko energy achieved a revenue of 510 million yuan (YoY + 17.1%), recording a net profit of 20 million yuan. In March 2022, the company plans to establish a subsidiary within the company, mainly engaged in distributed photovoltaic EPC business; The external department has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Risen Energy Co.Ltd(300118) Lvdian (Zhejiang) building materials Co., Ltd. to cooperate in the research and development, procurement, business cooperation and promotion of BIPV products and jointly develop BIPV roof products. In the medium and long term, the company's photovoltaic building integration business process is expected to accelerate; Under the "double carbon" strategy, the company is expected to accelerate its transformation into a green and low-carbon building integration service provider by virtue of the technical advantages and channel advantages of distributed photovoltaic EPC engineering.
Profit forecast and valuation
Considering the impact of newly signed orders and price fluctuations of raw materials on the gross profit margin, based on the full prediction of various business data, we expect the company to achieve operating revenue of 18.993 billion yuan, 23.275 billion yuan and 28.322 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 25.44%, 22.54% and 21.68%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company of 865 million yuan, 1062 million yuan and 1276 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 25.91%, 22.85% and 20.14%, corresponding to EPS of 0.43, 0.53 and 0.63 yuan. The current price corresponding to PE is 9.8, 8.0 and 6.6 times. Maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the penetration rate of steel structure fabricated buildings is lower than expected; The growth rate of fixed asset investment was lower than expected, and the promotion of BIPV in China was lower than expected.
