\u3000\u3000 Jiangsu Changshu Automotive Trim Group Co.Ltd(603035) (603035)
Excellent local auto decoration suppliers start the journey of globalization. As an excellent local interior decoration supplier, from 2019 to 2021, while deeply binding Beijing Benz, brilliance BMW, FAW red flag and other medium and high-end customers, the company focused on developing weixiaoli and other new energy customers, so as to achieve a rapid increase in the proportion of profits to non profits. In 2020, the company will participate in the companies of the German BMW supplier way group. The two sides will work together to expand business in Germany and Europe, which means that the company has the opportunity to deeply cut into the global OEM supply chain and start an overseas journey.
Fully benefiting from consumption upgrading, local interior decoration enterprises have grown rapidly. Under the trend of consumption upgrading, in order to meet the diversified needs of users with more personalization, comfort and safety, the main engine factory endows the interior with innovative design in terms of technology, materials and other aspects, which leads to the continuous increase of the value of single car interior and provides new opportunities for the growth of the interior industry. At present, China's interior decoration market is in a situation of one super and many strong brands. In the future, with the wave of electric intelligence, independent brands will rise strongly. According to our calculation, the market share of independent brands is expected to increase to 65% in 2025. At that time, local interior decoration enterprises are expected to deeply bind independent brands by virtue of their outstanding advantages such as fast response speed, stable supply chain and strong enterprising spirit, At the same time, it will integrate into the supply system of the global automobile market and is expected to gradually become a global leader in the subdivided industry.
Large volume of new energy vehicles opens up the growth space of the company. The company has entered the supplier systems of Weilai, ideal, Xiaopeng, Volkswagen MEB, Tesla, Zero run, Nezha, Chery new energy, Gaohe and Jaguar Land Rover in the UK. It has successively obtained orders with large single vehicle value in new energy vehicle enterprises, such as door panels, main and auxiliary instrument panels, columns and so on. In 2021, H1's new energy sales accounted for 14.4% of the total sales, an increase of 35.85% compared with 2020. According to the announcement and public information, the unit price of the company's supporting products is estimated, and the large volume of new energy vehicles is superimposed. From 2021 to 2022, the Department's orders for new energy vehicles are expected to contribute about 456 million yuan and 1.11 billion yuan of revenue. In terms of production capacity, 11 production bases across the country have realized coordinated layout with vehicle manufacturers, and IPO and convertible bond expansion projects have been successively implemented, which also ensures the company's rapid growth in the future.
Overweight intelligent cockpit, depth layout and vertical integration. Smart cockpit: the company continues to expand its capability boundary, enrich its product structure, participate in FAW Fusheng, expand its passenger seat business, and cooperate with Huawei to layout the design and development of smart cockpit. In the future, with the gradual landing of smart cockpit, it is expected to open a new growth space. Mold sector: Changyuan technology, the company's key mold factory, has obtained mold orders covering multiple models of customers inside and outside the group. In the future, with the large volume of new orders, it is expected to continue to contribute to the performance increment of the company.
Investment suggestion: maintain the "Buy-A" rating. We expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 to be RMB 425 million, RMB 526 million and RMB 629 million respectively, corresponding to the current market value, PE is 17.0, 13.7 and 11.5 times respectively. As the company's downstream new power customers exceeded expectations, we raised the company's six-month target price to 29 yuan / share, corresponding to 19.86 times PE in 2022, maintaining the "Buy-A" rating.
Risk tip: the sales volume of luxury cars is lower than expected, the sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected, and the production capacity landing is lower than expected.
