\u3000\u3000 Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) (600600)
Event: the company issued the announcement of annual performance increase in 2021. The company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 3.15 billion yuan in 2021, an increase of 950 million yuan over the same period of last year, a year-on-year increase of about 43.1%; The net profit of non parent company deduction was 2.194 billion yuan, an increase of 380 million yuan over the same period of last year, a year-on-year increase of 20.9%.
Key investment points
Q4 performance is under pressure in the off-season and epidemic situation, and land compensation thickens profits. According to the pre increase announcement, the company's 21q4 net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be - 460 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 40.6%, of which the government's land expropriation compensation for yangjiaqun plot is expected to be thickened, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be - 1.02 billion yuan per month, a year-on-year decrease of about 18.4%. In the fourth quarter, under the repeated influence of the epidemic situation, the company's sales volume was under short-term pressure, and the rising pressure of raw material prices gradually appeared. At the same time, as the main sponsor of the Beijing Winter Olympic Games, the company increased the investment of brand advertising expenses, and the superposition of multiple factors led to the operating profit slightly lower than expected.
It is expected that the annual sales volume will increase slightly in 21 years, and the upgrading trend of product structure will continue. According to the channel investigation and research, under the background of the off-season in the fourth quarter and the disturbance of point epidemic in Shaanxi, we expect the company's annual sales volume of 21 to increase in single digits year-on-year, and the sales volume of 21q4 may be under pressure. At the product end, it is expected that the sales volume of low-end products will decline slightly in 21 years, the sales volume of middle-end and above products will still achieve double-digit growth, and the upgrading trend of product structure is obvious and is expected to continue.
Investment suggestion: looking forward to 22 years, the company will continue to upgrade its products and continuously improve its terminal layout. In the future, we will continue to expand the medium and high-end market share with high-quality channels. At the same time, the company continues to promote the optimization and improvement of capacity utilization, providing another boost to achieve performance objectives. Considering the company's increased profits from land acquisition and storage, we raised our profit forecast for 21 years. We predict that from 2021 to 2023, we will achieve a revenue of 30.417/32.455/34.527 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 9.6% / 6.7% / 6.4%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 31.50/34.30/4.014 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 43.1% / 8.9% / 17.0%, corresponding to EPS of 2.31/2.51/2.94 yuan respectively, maintaining the company's "Buy-A" investment rating.
Risk tips: epidemic situation continues, policy risk, food safety risk, sales volume is lower than expected, etc.
