\u3000\u30 Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co.Ltd(003006) 36 Jiangxi Synergy Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300636) )
Event description
The company released the annual report of 2021 and the quarterly report of 2022q1. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 592 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.99%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 81 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.80%, and a deduction of non net profit of 79 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.72%. The comprehensive gross profit margin is 30.21%, the net profit margin is 13.70%, and roe9 13% (diluted). Realize eps0 39 yuan, and it is proposed to allocate 0.6 yuan to increase 5 shares. In the first quarter of 2022, the company achieved an operating revenue of 180 million yuan, an increase of 30.89%; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was 268282 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 33.22%, realizing eps0.01% 13 yuan.
Event comments
Rich product echelons and high growth rate of domestic sales. The company’s product group includes 7 mature varieties, 17 new varieties that have been submitted for approval or are being submitted for approval, and more than 30 varieties under research. Among the seven mature varieties, the varieties approved and sold in China include venlafaxine hydrochloride, celecoxib and tigrelol. In 2021, the export business of mature varieties was generally stable, and the sales volume of gabapentin increased by 64%, but it was lower than the established goal of the company. Rivaroxaban passed the approval of CDE in March 2022. This year, it is expected that mirabellon, gabapentin, febupristat, vigliptin, rebapat, apixaban and edoxaban toluenesulfonate will be in the supplement stage. It is expected that seven varieties can be approved in China by the end of 2022. Among the domestic varieties, the sales of venlafaxine hydrochloride, celecoxib and tigrelol are in a period of rapid rise. Subsequently, with more and more varieties completing CDE registration, the trend of rapid growth in the sales of technical drugs in China has been established. In 2021, the domestic sales revenue was 181 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 119.88%, accounting for 30.66% of the revenue; In the first quarter of 2022, Q1 domestic sales increased by 44.89% year-on-year, accounting for 32.05% of revenue. Domestic sales will continue to grow rapidly in the future.
The company’s new production capacity is gradually landing, laying the foundation for large-scale production. At present, the phase I project of the company’s new plant is under commissioning and trial production will begin in June. The second phase of the project will also start construction in June to ensure the continuous expansion of the company’s production capacity, meet the large-scale production demand of the new product market, and provide capacity guarantee for the development of cdmo business. The cdmo business segment of the company achieved a revenue of 904372 million yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 59.67%; In the first quarter of 2022, the sales volume was about 20 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.58%, which was related to the small delivery volume; In 2022, CMO / cdmo orders in hand (including those executed in the first quarter) will be RMB 1117017 million, and the annual sales target of more than 100 million is expected to be exceeded. At present, there are 5 original research API projects that have been listed or will be listed in the early stage of cooperation, and this sector will be one of the fastest growing sectors of the company in the future.
The negative factors are gradually eliminated, and the gross profit margin is expected to continue to increase. In the fourth quarter of 2021, the company achieved operating revenue and net profit of 164 million yuan and 145731 million yuan respectively. Net profit decreased by 39.32% month on month. It is mainly affected by three negative factors: the shortage of global shipping, the appreciation of RMB and the rise of raw material prices. In the first quarter of this year, the export transportation superimposed the impact of China’s epidemic, and the export delivery still had a certain impact. At present, the amount of goods warehouse pressing is about 15 million. The company reduces the negative impact through multi port export. The trend of RMB appreciation was broken and the price of raw materials fell in the first quarter, which was beneficial to the decline of cost side in subsequent quarters. In addition, the current situation of insufficient capacity utilization of gabapentin is expected to be adjusted this year. The comprehensive gross profit margin is expected to continue to increase.
The goal of equity incentive is to lock in future growth. The company recently announced the draft equity incentive plan, which plans to encourage core employees and grant a total of 3.9528 million shares. Performance objectives: Based on the net profit in 2021, the net profit growth rates in 2022, 2023 and 2024 shall not be less than 40%, 90% and 130% respectively, corresponding to 40%, 35.7% and 21% year-on-year respectively. Assuming that the grant date is June 30, 2022 and the closing price is 21.62 yuan, the corresponding equity incentive expenses from 2022 to 2025 are 13.89 million yuan, 19.23 million yuan, 7.48 million yuan and 2.14 million yuan respectively. Combined with the actual situation, we believe that the pipeline has a high probability of achieving the excess capacity, and the company can achieve the excess capacity.
Profit forecast, valuation analysis and investment suggestions
We expect the company to achieve sales revenue of 809 million and 1.160 billion from 2022 to 2024 RMB 1.599 billion, with net profits of 125 million, 218 million and 325 million (considering equity incentive). Based on the closing price of 19.90 yuan on April 29, the corresponding PE is 33.3, 19.1 and 12.8 times respectively. We continue to be optimistic about the future development of the company and give a “buy-b” rating.
There are risks
Including but not limited to: risks of safety accidents and environmental pollution; The risk that the R & D progress is less than expected; Risks of epidemic changes affecting production, logistics and sales.
