\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 567 Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) )
Event overview. On April 29, 2022, the company released the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 22 years. The company achieved a revenue of 3.5 billion yuan in the whole year of 21 years, with a year-on-year increase of 212.6%, and realized a net profit attributable to the parent of -953 million yuan, deducting a net profit not attributable to the parent of -1.263 billion yuan. In 22q1, the company achieved a revenue of 1.529 billion yuan, an increase of 317.1% and a decrease of 0.4%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was -244 million yuan and the net profit not attributable to the parent company was -297 million yuan.
21 year performance under pressure. In 21q4, the company achieved a revenue of 1.535 billion yuan, an increase of 173.3% in the same period and 41.1% in the ring. The net profit attributable to the parent was -533 million yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent after deduction was -608 million yuan. The gross profit margin was – 8.3%, a decrease of 20.97 PCTs in the same period and 5.05 PCTs in the ring. In terms of shipment volume, the company’s Q4 shipment volume was 1.31gwh, with an increase of 138.2% and a ring increase of 12.9%. The company’s shipments continued to grow, but its profitability declined seriously. The main reasons are as follows: 1 Upstream raw materials increased significantly; 2. In order to seize the fixed points and maintain good customer relations, the company has a low initial pricing; 3. During the reporting period, the depreciation cost of the company’s fixed assets increased, and the production capacity was still climbing, so the scale effect was difficult to show; 4. The company accrued inventory falling price reserves for defective products in the process of climbing production, and the balance of inventory falling price reserves at the end of 21 increased by 33 million yuan compared with the beginning of the period.
Price increase + capacity release, 22q1’s profitability has been greatly improved. The gross profit margin of 22q1 of the company was 6.8%, increased by 2.9pcts at the same time, increased by 15.1pcts at the same time, and the net profit margin was – 16.0%, increased by 32.1pcts at the same time, increased by 18.7pcts at the same time. The profitability was significantly improved. The main reasons are: 1 The capacity of Zhenjiang phase I plant is fully released, bringing scale effect; 2. The price transmission is smooth, and the difference of the company’s products brings strong bargaining power. It is expected that the price of downstream customers will increase by about 30% – 40%; 3. The company’s expense rate tends to be reasonable. During 22q1, the expense rate of the company was 24.0%, with a year-on-year decrease of 34.8pcts, of which the expense rates of sales, management, R & D and finance were 5.2%, 7.5%, 12.5% and 2.2% respectively, with a year-on-year change of – 1.7pcts, – 15.4pcts, – 18.8pcts and 1.2pcts.
The production capacity is released rapidly, and the orders have been in hand for 22 years. Zhenjiang base: phase I 8gwh project has been fully put into operation, phase II 8gwh is expected to be completed by the end of the second quarter, and phase III 8gwh will be started in the fourth quarter; Ganzhou base: existing capacity 5gwh; Wuhu base: it will be completed in 2023. We predict that the effective capacity of the company will be about 15-16gwh in 22 years. According to the company’s announcement, in 22 years, the company’s orders on hand were 14.81gwh, the orders on hand were full, and the company’s production capacity matched the order demand.
High quality customer structure, new products can be expected. The company deeply binds the two major customers Daimler and GAC. The sales volume of supporting models GAC aionv / s has increased significantly, and the heavy volume of Daimler EQS / EQE and new EQA / EQB is imminent, laying the cornerstone of the company’s performance growth. The company has actively developed new products and made breakthroughs in the field of energy storage. The cycle times of lithium iron phosphate battery can reach 12000 times, and the progress of sodium ion battery is better than expected. It is expected to realize industrialization in 23 years.
Investment suggestion: the company is expected to turn losses into profits in 22 years. We expect the net profit attributable to the parent company to be RMB 15 million, RMB 1.929 billion and RMB 3.336 billion from 2022 to 2024, with a year-on-year turnaround, an increase of 13082% and 73% respectively. Considering that the company is the leader of soft packaging and the turning point of revenue and profit is imminent, maintain the “recommended” rating.
Risk tip: the sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected, and the price rise of raw materials is higher than expected.
