\u3000\u3000 Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) (600600)
The company announced the performance forecast for 2021: it is expected that the company will realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 3.15 billion in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of about 43%, and a net profit after deduction of non-profit of about RMB 2.194 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 21%.
The upgrading of product structure brings endogenous growth, land acquisition and storage thickening and non recurring income. According to the statistics of China Wine Industry Association, China's beer output from January to November was 33.27 million kiloliters, with a year-on-year increase of 5.2%. Considering that the company's main North China market has been affected by the epidemic for many times, we expect that the annual sales growth rate of the company will be lower than the industry level, and the growth mainly comes from the structural upgrading brought by the large-scale production of high-end products such as pure draft beer, white beer, 1903 and huperag. The company's yangjiaqun plot was collected and stored by the government, and the land expropriation compensation was thickened. The net profit was about 436 million yuan. After deducting non recurring profits and losses, the company lost 1.022 billion yuan in the fourth quarter of 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 18.56%. The fourth quarter was the traditional off-season of beer. At the same time, the expenses were calculated at the end of the year, and the loss of the company in a single quarter expanded.
The high-end industry is accelerated in 2021, and the price increase is on the ground. 2022 is ready to go. According to He Yong, chairman of the beer branch of China Wine Association, it is estimated that the sales revenue of the beer industry will reach 155 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 7.8%, and the profit will reach 17.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 30%. The high-end industry will speed up and the profitability will continue to improve. At the same time, driven by the rising prices of packaging materials and barley, Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) , Budweiser Asia Pacific, China Resources snowflake and other beer leading enterprises have raised prices one after another, Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) has also raised prices for several products. For example, in August, the supply price of Qingdao pure health terminal in Shandong increased by 4 yuan / box, an increase of about 5%. At the same time, the consumption scenario is expected to gradually recover in 2022, and the beer sales will recover, ushering in the simultaneous rise of volume and price.
Complete incentive mechanism and multi category development of main brands. In 2020, the company launched an equity incentive plan, guided by profit growth and return on net assets, to comply with the transformation of industry competition from "gauge modulus" to "profit price". In terms of operation, the company deepened the implementation of the brand strategy of " Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) main brand + the second brand of Laoshan beer", enriched the product matrix of the main brand Qingdao through white beer, pure raw beer and other categories, launched ultra-high-end products such as "Centennial journey and amber rag", and interacted with consumers through new channels and new scenes with more than 200 "tsingtao1903 Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) " bars distributed throughout the country, Enhance brand positioning.
Investment suggestion: we estimate that the operating revenue of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be 30.470 billion yuan, 32.869 billion yuan and 34.851 billion yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 3.150 billion yuan, 3.286 billion yuan and 3.635 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding EPS will be 2.31, 2.41 and 2.66 yuan respectively. The high-end beer industry is in the ascendant. As one of the "oligarchs" of Chinese beer, the company enjoys the development dividend of the industry and still has room for development in terms of high-end large single products and brand strength improvement. Referring to the current PE (TTM) valuation level of beer (Shenwan) industry, the target price is 102.43 yuan according to the company's performance in 2022, Maintain a "recommended" rating.
Risk tip: the epidemic repeatedly affects residents' consumption, industry competition intensifies, raw material prices rise too much, and food safety accidents.
