\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 518 Shenzhen United Winners Laser Co.Ltd(688518) )
Key investment points
Event:
The first quarterly report of 2022 was released, during which the operating revenue was 370 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 63%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 15 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was RMB 11 million, with a year-on-year increase of 70%.
The first quarterly report was in line with expectations: the revenue of lithium battery equipment increased significantly, the gross profit margin increased slightly year-on-year, benefited from the large delivery of lithium battery equipment orders, and the revenue increased significantly year-on-year. In the first quarter, the company’s gross profit margin was 38.4%, up 0.6pct year-on-year and basically flat month on month. In the first quarter, the company’s sales expense rate / management expense rate / R & D expense rate were 5.8% / 23.3% / 6.6% respectively, with a year-on-year change of – 2.0pct / + 4.3pct / – 2.3pct. The year-on-year increase of 50 million yuan in management expenses is due to the increase in employee compensation. It is expected that the profitability will continue to rise with the increase of output value.
In 2021, the newly signed orders increased significantly year-on-year to 3.6 billion yuan (including tax), and the production capacity increased significantly at the same time
1. In 2021, the company signed a total of 3.6 billion yuan of new orders (including tax), with a year-on-year increase of 139%. Among them, 85.3% came from the power lithium battery industry (the revenue of power lithium battery accounted for 71% in 2021), and the proportion further increased.
2. In 2021, the company will significantly increase its production capacity in terms of land area and number of personnel. In 2021, 34000 square meters of Jiangsu Liyang phase II and 47000 square meters of Huizhou Zhongkai phase I have been put into operation. Jiangsu Liyang phase III, Huizhou Zhongkai phase II and Sichuan Yibin factories will also be completed successively in the second half of 2022. At that time, the land area will increase from 40000 square meters in 2020 to 273000 square meters by the end of 2022. In terms of personnel, the total number of people at the end of 2021 was 3517, with a year-on-year increase of 85%, including R & D personnel and production commissioning personnel.
The laser welding technology is leading and the information standardization construction is strengthened, benefiting from the large cylindrical lithium battery scheme
1. The company’s YAG laser, hybrid welding laser, blue laser, semiconductor laser and other technical strength are leading in the industry. At the same time, the company is one of the few enterprises in the industry with the supply capacity of complete sets of laser welding equipment.
2. The company continues to strengthen information construction, and actively explores some standardization in non-standard automatic manufacturing links such as design, procurement and production, so as to reduce production costs and improve management efficiency.
3. In addition, the large cylindrical lithium battery represented by Tesla 4680 will adopt the full pole lug design, which has a larger welding area than the traditional battery, greatly increasing the difficulty of welding and the demand for welding equipment. As the leader of laser welding equipment in the field of power lithium battery, the company is expected to fully benefit.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 300 / 500 / 680 million respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 226% / 66% / 36% and a three-year compound growth rate of 94%, corresponding to pe23 / 14 / 10 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips:
The expansion of power lithium battery production is lower than expected; Changes in laser welding technology; The application progress of large cylindrical lithium battery is lower than expected.
