\u3000\u3000 Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) (600600)
Event: in 2021, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 3.15 billion, a year-on-year increase of 43%. If the confirmed 436 million yuan of non operating land expropriation compensation is excluded, the net profit attributable to the parent company of operating caliber is RMB 2.714 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23%; In 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non-profit was RMB 2.194 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 21%. The net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 was -897 million yuan, and that in 2020q4 was -777 million yuan in the same period; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non-profit in 2021q4 was -1.022 billion yuan, and that in 2020q4 was -862 million yuan in the same period.
It is expected that short-term sales are under pressure and adhere to the high-end logic. Since the middle and late October of 2021, the epidemic situation has been repeated throughout the country, resulting in a great impact on the current drinking channels of the beer industry. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the catering revenue in October and November 2021 increased by 2.0% and - 2.7% respectively year-on-year. The epidemic situation was still serious in December, and the epidemic broke out successively in Shaanxi, Henan and other places, which are Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) important markets along the Yellow River. Due to the repeated impact of the epidemic, the sales volume of 2021q4 Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) is under pressure year-on-year, and we expect it to show a slight downward trend. However, the high-end trend continues. We expect that the price per ton of wine of 2021q4 company will still maintain a steady upward trend. We continue to emphasize that we should rationally look at the impact of repeated epidemics on short-term sales, and adhere to the logic of medium - and long-term high-end beer to promote profitability.
The loss in 2021q4 expanded, mainly due to the increase of cost + the decline of sales volume. In 2021q4, the loss range of net profit attributable to the parent company (operating caliber) and net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction of non profits increased year-on-year, mainly due to: (1) rising costs. 2021h1 company still has some low-priced raw materials locked in the early stage. 2021q3 began to use a large number of newly purchased high-priced raw materials, especially packaging materials, which further reflected the pressure of cost rise in the fourth quarter; (2) The scale effect weakened and the sales volume decreased, resulting in an increase in the dilution of fixed costs. Beer accounts for a high proportion of manufacturing expenses in the food and beverage industry, Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) nearly 20%. Affected by the epidemic, the company's sales volume was under pressure in the fourth quarter, resulting in further weakening the dilution effect of fixed cost per ton of wine. (3) Considering that the company continues to reduce staff and increase efficiency, it is expected that expenses such as employee placement and asset impairment will still be accrued in the fourth quarter.
Profit forecast: the company's high-end process is accelerated and the average price is accelerated. Under cost pressure, the industry is expected to gradually start raising prices. According to the company's performance forecast, we adjusted the profit forecast. It is estimated that the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 30.337 billion yuan, 33.623 billion yuan and 36.188 billion yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 27.14 (excluding land expropriation compensation), 3.656 billion yuan and 4.707 billion yuan respectively (the original value is 27.95, 3.604 and 4.659 billion yuan), and the EPS will be 231, 2.68 and 3.45 yuan respectively, corresponding to 39 times, 33 times of PE 26 times. After reducing the impact of plant closure, the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be RMB 2.874 billion, 3.816 billion and 4.707 billion, corresponding to 42 times, 32 times and 26 times of PE, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning events: repeated global epidemic and slowdown of global economic growth; Food safety risks; Sales decline due to irresistible factors; The deterioration of market competition leads to unexpected promotional activities
