\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 074 Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) )
Key investment points
Event: the company released the 2021 annual report and the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2021, the company realized an operating revenue of 10.356 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54.01%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 102 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 31.92%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was -342 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 45.03%. In the fourth quarter of 2021, the operating revenue reached 4.631 billion yuan, an increase of 74.99% year-on-year and 113.12% month on month; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 34 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 47.12% and a month on month increase of 73.25%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was -169 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 291.91% and a month on month decrease of 183.43%; In the first quarter of 2022, the operating revenue was 3.916 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 203.14% and a month on month decrease of 15.44%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 32 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 32.79% and a month on month decrease of 5.46%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 10 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 154.69% and a month on month increase of 105.78%.
The company completed the public war investment and deepened the layout of the industrial chain. In 2021, the company completed the non-public offering of shares and introduced strategic investor Volkswagen China. Volkswagen China became the largest shareholder of the company and completed the appointment of three directors recommended by Volkswagen China. It is expected that in the long term, the company's lithium iron phosphate battery cell is expected to provide additional power solutions for some Volkswagen models. In addition, the company actively promoted the layout of the industrial chain, invested in the construction of Feidong industrial base and Jiangxi Yichun lithium carbonate project, built a battery recycling network and accelerated the formation of an industrial closed loop. It is expected that in the future, with the tight supply of lithium carbonate and other mineral resources, the company's own lithium carbonate project is expected to provide guarantee for the company's raw material supply and reduce the cost of raw materials to a certain extent.
The unit price of products fell, and the cost side was significantly under pressure. In 2021, the gross profit margin of the company's annual sales reached 18.61%, and the gross profit margin of battery pack products was as low as 17.88%, both of which fell to the lowest in history, and the gross profit margin of 22q1 sales reached 14.49%. It is estimated that the decline in the gross profit margin of the company's battery pack products is mainly dragged down by lithium carbonate and other raw materials. At the beginning of 2021, the price of lithium carbonate was less than 50000 yuan / ton. By the end of 2021, the price of lithium carbonate was close to 300000 yuan / ton. By Q1 of 2022, the price of lithium carbonate had stood at 500000 yuan / ton. If 550 tons of lithium carbonate is required for 1GWh lithium iron phosphate battery, the theoretical cost per wh battery in 2021 will rise by 0.14 yuan / wh. The company sold about 14.46gwh of lithium batteries in 2021, and the corresponding unit revenue was 0.68 yuan / wh, lower than the level of 0.76 yuan / wh in 2020. The scale advantage brought by the cost side expansion was diluted by the price rise of upstream raw materials dominated by lithium carbonate, resulting in serious damage to the annual gross profit margin. It is expected that with the low-cost inventory running out, if the company continues to purchase raw materials at high prices, the cost side pressure may be amplified again.
The credit impairment loss is still dragged down, the turnover rate of accounts receivable is improved, and the expectation is better. The company's performance from 2019 to 2020 was seriously dragged down by impairment losses. In 2021, the company still accrued 340 million yuan of credit impairment losses. According to the disclosure of the annual report of 2021, the amount of accounts receivable of the company decreased by 8.26% compared with 2020, reaching 67.2 yuan, of which the amount aged more than 2 years and not withdrawn is 280 million yuan, which has certain risks. However, in 2021, the company's accounts receivable turnover rate increased to 1.56, 0.46 higher than that in 2020, and the company's accounts receivable liquidity became stronger. It is expected that in the future, with the optimization of customer structure and the improvement of management level, the company will gradually get rid of the risk of credit impairment and further improve its profitability.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that the company's EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 0.34 yuan, 0.68 yuan and 1.03 yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will maintain a compound growth rate of 156% in the next three years. Considering that the company's equity incentive helps the stable growth of production and sales volume (operating revenue), the profit expectation is better after the cost pressure is relieved, and the "hold" rating is maintained.
Risk warning: the risk that the company's production capacity is not released on schedule; The price of raw materials continues to rise, and there is a risk of shortage of some materials; The risk of oversupply and intensified market competition; Risk of bad debt loss.
