\u3000\u3000 Thunder Software Technology Co.Ltd(300496) (300496)
Event: on the evening of January 13, 2022, the company released the performance forecast for 2021. It is expected that the annual revenue will exceed 4 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 50%, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 640-680 million (+ 44.3% - + 53.3%), and the net profit deducted from non-profit will be 571-611 million (+ 56.0% - + 67.0%).
Q4 performance exceeded expectations, and the high prosperity of the industry continued to be verified. The company's Q4 single quarter operating revenue is expected to exceed 1.3 billion yuan, an increase of nearly 60% over the same period of last year, and a quarter on quarter increase of more than 35%. Adhering to the platform development strategy of "technology + ecology", the company has gradually realized the horizontal expansion of business in the way of "endogenous + extension" by virtue of the strong underlying ability of the operating system and technical service ability, and gradually established advantages in the field of intelligent vehicles and intelligent Internet of things. In recent years, the smart car and aiot markets have developed rapidly. Although the company's month on month growth in the past two quarters has fluctuated due to factors such as chip shortage and seasonal fluctuation of IOT shipment, Q4's performance growth exceeding expectations has once again confirmed the high outlook of the track.
Continuously overweight R & D, the company's equity incentive realizes the deep combination of employee interests and enterprise interests. According to the performance forecast, the company's equity incentive expense in 2021 is about 104 million yuan, an increase of about 32 million yuan over the same period of last year. In 2020, the company has implemented the equity incentive plan twice, of which the first phase objectives have been achieved; In September 2021, the company released the equity incentive plan again. The assessment target is based on the revenue in 2020. The revenue growth from 2021 to 2024 is not less than 40%, 50%, 60% and 70%, and the growth rate of more than 50% in the performance forecast has exceeded the assessment target in 2021. From the perspective of R & D investment, the R & D expense rate of Q3 reached 14.87%, with a year-on-year increase of 5.67pct and a month-on-month increase of 7.26pct. It can be seen that the company is still increasing R & D investment to consolidate its technical advantages. At the same time, it has realized the deep combination of employee interests and enterprise interests by means of equity incentive.
Smart cars and aiot continue to make efforts, and the company has recently launched a number of new products and solutions. In the field of intelligent vehicles, the company released a new intelligent cockpit solution based on Qualcomm sa8295 hardware platform at CES 2022, which can give full play to the outstanding performance of sa8295 in computing power, graphics, image processing, etc; The company released the industry-leading intelligent parking technology and solution - Thunder Software Technology Co.Ltd(300496) integrated intelligent parking at CES 2022; Recently, rightware, a wholly-owned subsidiary, officially released the first integrated automotive HMI tool chain Kanzi one. In the field of intelligent Internet of things, chuangtong Lianda released two new edge intelligent products Eb2 and EB6 edge intelligent stations and modelfarm algorithm training platform at CES 2022, which enriched the company's edge series product matrix. With the continuous expansion of product matrix, the moat of the company will continue to deepen, and the high growth of future performance is expected to continue.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
According to the company's performance forecast in 2021, we predict that the company's earnings per share from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.55, 2.23 and 3.14 yuan (the original forecast was 1.54, 2.21 and 3.01 yuan, the forecast of operating revenue and expenses will be increased, and the gross profit margin of intelligent Internet of things business will be reduced). With reference to the 71 times P / E ratio given by comparable companies in 2022, the corresponding target price is 158.56 yuan, Maintain buy rating.
Risk tips
The implementation of automobile intelligence is less than expected, the business expansion of intelligent Internet of things is less than expected, and the shortage of chips continues.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
