\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 076 Jiangsu Sinopep-Allsino Biopharmaceutical Co.Ltd(688076) )
Event:
On April 27, 2022, the company released its 2021 annual report and 2022q1 quarterly report: in 2021, the company achieved revenue of 644 million yuan (+ 13.58%), net profit attributable to parent company of 115 million yuan (- 6.52%), and net profit not attributable to parent company of 105 million yuan (+ 10.96%); In 2022q1, the revenue was 134 million yuan (- 19.22%), the net profit attributable to the parent company was 16.09 million yuan (- 59.45%), and the net profit not attributable to the parent company was 12.68 million yuan (- 66.64%).
Guoyuan view:
The repeated epidemic and the high concentration of customers of the company's customized products have a great impact on the short-term quarterly performance
By quarter, the revenue of 2022q4 is 194 million (+ 0.96%), deducting 39.67 million (+ 7.74%) of net profit not attributable to parent company; In 2022q1, the income was 134 million (- 19.22%), and the net profit not attributable to the parent company was 12.68 million (- 66.64%). There are quarterly fluctuations. We believe that the spread of the overseas epidemic has brought inconvenience to the visit and expansion of the company's overseas customers and affected the development of new orders. For customized products, due to the relatively high concentration of customers, orders in some commercialization stages fluctuate; The income of some independently selected products has declined to a certain extent due to the impact of changes in the market environment and the research and development progress of downstream products.
Strengthen the competitiveness of cdmo in multiple directions, steadily promote independent products, and long-term development can be expected
By business, the revenue of customized products and technical services was 511 million (+ 23.8%); The income from independently selected products was 131 million yuan (- 14.11%). ① Customized: complete the process research and development of 25 new projects, and 17 are the first factory scale-up; The construction of phase II GMP workshop on production capacity is expected to add about 400000 liters, which will be gradually put into operation in 2022 and 2023 Jiangsu Lianyungang Port Co.Ltd(601008) apc180 capacity expanded to 2.5 times; In terms of market, BD team has been established in the United States and Europe to strengthen overseas customer development; 5 newly developed customers in China; 13 cdmo scientists will be added in R & D, including one returned doctor and one postdoctoral. ② Independent selection of products: I. five European and American customers have been newly developed in the API business, seven preparations related to API products have been listed, and eight APIs are still in the approval of preparation Association in different countries. II. In terms of preparations, the thymus method for injection won the bid in the fifth batch of procurement with quantity; Another 2 preparations have obtained registration approval and 4 preparations are under CDE review and approval. III. in terms of innovative drugs, the GLP-1 receptor agonist independently developed has submitted the registration application of ind; GLP-1 / GIP dual target innovative drug spn007 has completed the laboratory evaluation of activity and efficacy.
Investment advice and profit forecast
It is estimated that the company's revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 766 / 949 / 1177 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 18.9% / 24.0% / 24.0%, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 138 / 175 / 219 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 20.0% / 26.5% / 25.4%, and the corresponding PE will be 39.0, 30.9 and 24.6 times. Considering the gradual normalization and recovery of the company's business after the epidemic is alleviated, the rating of "overweight" of the company will be maintained.
Risk tips
Impact of single large order fluctuation; Risk of epidemic uncertainty; Business development uncertainty risk, etc.
