\u3000\u30 Zhongyan Technology Co.Ltd(003001) 22 Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) )
Event overview
The company issued the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022.
In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 30.652 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 101.79%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 10.209 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 209.23%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 10.184 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 206.48%.
In Q1 2022, the company achieved an operating revenue of 8.841 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 125.16%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.923 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 104.95%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was RMB 1.896 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 101.15%.
In 2021, conventional performance increased rapidly, and covid-19 vaccine contributed high profits
In 2021, the company’s revenue from independent products was 9.697 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 707.61%; The revenue of agency products was 20.931 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49.99%. The significant increase in the revenue of independent products is mainly due to the sales of covid-19 vaccine. According to the disclosure in the company’s annual report, zhifeilong Kema achieved a revenue of 8.419 billion yuan and a net profit of 5.58 billion yuan in 2021 (the revenue and net profit of Longke Ma are mainly contributed by covid-19 vaccine). After deducting covid-19, we estimate that in 2021, the operating income of the company’s conventional business will be 22.233 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.37%, and the net profit will be 4.629 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.23%. In 2021, the company issued 8.8 million HPV vaccines (+ 22%) in batches and 10.21 million HPV vaccines (+ 101%) in batches. HPV vaccines in China were in short supply. The number of HPV vaccine batches issued by the company increased significantly, which was an important force contributing to the growth of annual performance.
The net profit in the first quarter is close to the upper limit of performance forecast, and the non covid-19 vaccine business drives high performance growth
The company previously issued a pre increase announcement in the first quarter, which shows that the company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company in Q1 2022 of 1.783-1.970 billion yuan. The company released its first quarter report this time. In 2022, Q1 company realized a net profit attributable to its parent company of 1.923 billion yuan, exceeding the median value of the performance pre increase range and close to the upper limit of the range. We expect and calculate that the company’s covid-19 vaccine contribution profit in the first quarter of 2022 is less than 100 million yuan, and the performance exceeds the expectation mainly from the contribution of the company’s non covid-19 vaccine business. According to the batch issuance data released by the Central Inspection Institute, in Q1 2022, the company issued 12 batches of tetravalent HPV vaccine, which is estimated to be about 2-2.5 million; There are 20 batches of nine valent HPV vaccine, which we speculate is about 4-4.5 million. It is estimated that in 2022, about 6-7 million pieces of Q1 four price and nine price will be issued in batches, with a year-on-year increase of about 100% – 130%. Considering that the current penetration rate of HPV vaccine in China is very low, the current market is still in short supply. We expect that the revenue of HPV vaccine business of Q1 company will account for more than 80% in 2022. The high growth of batch issuance of four price and nine price HPV vaccines has laid a foundation for the high growth of HPV vaccine business of the company in the first quarter. According to the latest data disclosed by the Chinese people’s Procuratorate, from April 1 to April 27, 2022, two batches of tetravalent HPV vaccine and 10 batches of nine valent HPV vaccine were issued. We speculate that the overall number is about 2.5-3 million. The company’s HPV vaccine batch issuance is smooth, and we expect the company’s HPV vaccine sales to continue to be strong throughout the year.
Investment advice
Regardless of covid-19 vaccine performance flexibility, we maintain the company’s profit forecast for 20222023 and add a new profit forecast for 2024. It is estimated that the operating revenue of the company from 2022 to 2023 will be 30.810/40.486 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 7.208/9.748 billion yuan, and the EPS will be 4.51/6.09 yuan. The profit forecast for 2024 is added. It is estimated that the operating revenue of the company in 2024 will be 53.288 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 12.545 billion yuan, and the EPS will be 784 million yuan. Corresponding to the closing price of 97.46 yuan / share on April 27, 2022, PE is 22 / 16 / 12 times. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The sales of core vaccine products were lower than expected; Covid-19 vaccine export is less than expected risk; The progress of vaccine product development was lower than expected.
