\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Quanxinhao Co.Ltd(000007) 99 Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) )
Event: the company released the annual report of 2021 and the first quarter report of 2022. In 2021, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 3.414 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 86.97%; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was 893 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 81.75%. In the first quarter of 2022, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 1.688 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 86.04%; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was 521 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 94.46%.
21 years ended successfully, and the high growth of 22q1 laid the foundation for the whole year. In the past 21 years, the company’s sales continued to soar. The annual revenue of the company was 3.41 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 87.0%. Among them, the revenue of neishen wine / drunkard series / Xiangquan series / other series was 10.3/19.2/1.8/280 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 80.7% / 88.9% / 11.7% / 255.9%. The growth of neishen drunkard series was mainly driven by volume growth, and the high growth of other series was mainly due to the good performance of new products in the banquet market. In the 21st year, the gross profit margin and net profit margin of the company were 80.0% and 26.2% respectively, with year-on-year changes of + 1.1pct and -0.75pct respectively. At the current stage of small volume, the company’s strategy is to be market-oriented, continuously invest to improve brand awareness and focus on large-scale development. 22q1 company achieved a revenue of 1.69 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 86.0%, and the growth rate is still bright. The epidemic situation in Hunan is well controlled, giving a better collection environment in January. The provinces with small volume in East China, North China and South China are still in a period of rapid growth, and the newly recruited dealers also contributed to the collection. At the same time, the forward movement of the collection rhythm also led to a higher growth rate than that in the same period, laying the foundation for the growth of the whole year. Under the background of steady growth, New commercial distribution and market dynamic sales are expected to gradually return to normal.
Channel expansion is still an important driving force, and the results of in-depth nationalization strategy are obvious. In the 21st year, the number of distributors of the company was 1256, 493 more than that in the 20th year; 590 exclusive stores, with a year-on-year increase of 134%; The number of core terminal outlets was 19752, with a year-on-year increase of 137%; The county-level market coverage rate reached 94%. The profit margin of internal participation and drunkard channels is significantly higher than that of competitive products. At the same time, the company spared no effort in brand building. Through internal participation value seminars, golf competitions and other activities, the company has increased the brand voice in key markets, and the investment attraction is progressing smoothly under the combination of push and pull. According to the company’s plan, more than 400 stores will be added in 22 years, and the number of core terminal outlets will reach 30000. Channel expansion is still an important driving force.
Investment suggestion: internal reference drunkard two wheel drive, the national potential energy rise of Hunan liquor leader, and maintain the “overweight” rating. In 2022, it is expected that the company will still lead the brand potential through internal participation, focus on the large single products of alcoholic series, and realize the occupation of secondary high-end. It is estimated that the company will achieve a revenue of RMB 4.820/64.188019 billion, a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.423/19.782557 billion and an EPS of RMB 4.38/6.09/7.87 in 22-24 years. The current price corresponds to a PE of 34.21x/24.60x/19.04x in 22-24 years, maintaining the “overweight” rating.
Risk tip: the competition inside and outside the province intensifies, food safety problems, and channel expansion is less than expected
