\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 531 Titan Wind Energy (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(002531) )
In 2022q1, the net profit not attributable to the parent company was deducted by 63 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 77.2%, lower than expected. In 2022q1, the revenue was 728 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of – 47.63% and a month on month increase of – 75.33%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 33 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of – 93.46% and a month on month increase of – 88.31%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 63 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of – 77.17% and a month on month increase of – 78.11%. The gross profit margin of 2022q1 was 23.26%, with a year-on-year increase of -8.96pct and a month on month increase of + 5.63pct; The net interest rate attributable to the parent company was 4.47%, with a year-on-year ratio of -31.31pct and a month on month ratio of -4.96pct. Due to the accelerated promotion of megawatt models and the impact of the epidemic on production and logistics, the product delivery of 2022q1 company decreased, resulting in a sharp decline in performance.
The tower is in full order, and the production capacity will be restored from May. The production, logistics and customer demand of Taicang, juancheng and Puyang plants of 2022q1 company were greatly affected by the epidemic, resulting in a decline in tower delivery on a month on month basis. The production capacity is expected to return to normal in May. The North Baotou factory, Shangdu factory and Tongliao factory make up for the production capacity suspended from January to April through flexible production expansion. At present, the company has an order of 800000 tons, and the output of each factory is full. We expect the annual tower shipment to be about 8 China Baoan Group Co.Ltd(000009) 00000 tons.
The blade capacity expanded rapidly and the customer expansion made a great breakthrough. The blade production capacity of Hubei Shayang, Inner Mongolia Shangdu and Jilin Qian’an factories is expected to be completed and put into operation in 2022. At that time, the company has more than 25 super large blade (90m +) production lines, and the planned annual production capacity will reach 2000 sets (more than 10GW). In addition, with the rapid iteration of large-length blades under the trend of large-scale units, the company’s orders for blade molds hit a new record, which is expected to optimize the gross profit margin. In 2022q1, the company actively carried out cooperation with the main engine factory and made great breakthroughs, becoming the preferred supplier of blades in the prospective export market. Changshu factory is used as the blade base exported to Vietnam and India, and the orders on hand are full; We have deepened the cooperation with Zhejiang Windey Co.Ltd(300772) in the Central Plains, and actively explore new customers in the three north market. Under the background of overall oversupply of blade capacity, it is expected to further drive the sales volume of the company’s blades and increase the market share by strengthening cooperation with the main engine factory.
Rolling development of wind farms, and gradually open the asset light mode. Affected by the weather in 2022q1, the utilization hours of wind power in China were 555 hours, a year-on-year decrease of 65 hours, resulting in a decline in the power generation revenue of the company’s wind farm, which has basically returned to normal at present. The company will increase the utilization hours of power generation and ensure the stable growth of power generation business sector by taking advantage of small wind season overhaul and maintenance, participating in various power trading and alleviating power rationing. In 2022, the indicators under construction and obtained are 1.1gw, of which the Inner Mongolia Wulanchabu 500MW project is expected to be completed within the year and connected to the grid with full capacity, and the capacity of the grid connected wind farm will reach 1384mw by the end of the year; Hubei 600MW project is expected to start construction within this year and is expected to be completed in 2023.
The cost rate increased, and the inventory increased significantly month on month: the cost of 2022q1 decreased by 13.55% year-on-year to 130 million yuan, and the cost rate during the period increased by 7.04pct to 17.86%. Among them, the rates of sales, management (including R & D), R & D and financial expenses increased by 0.73 PCT, 3.04 PCT, 0.71 PCT and 3.28 PCT to 0.83%, 8.63%, 1.05% and 8.40% respectively. The inventory at the end of 2022q1 was 1.409 billion yuan, an increase of 433 million yuan month on month, mainly because the company prepared goods for sales in the second quarter. We expect revenue to rise month on month in 2022q2.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the epidemic and iteration of large models accelerate or affect the delivery, and the profit forecast is lowered. We predict that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.38919372452 billion yuan (the previous value was 1.68923373294 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024), a year-on-year increase of + 6% / 39% / 27%, corresponding to EPS of 0.77/1.07/1.36 yuan, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: policies fail to meet expectations, competition intensifies, etc.
