\u3000\u30 Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co.Ltd(003006) 01 Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) )
Event: the company released the 2021 annual report and the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2021, the operating revenue was 3.652 billion yuan (+ 61.5%), the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.263 billion yuan (+ 86.0%), and the net profit not attributable to the parent company was 1.191 billion yuan (+ 91.90%), of which the Q4 single quarter operating revenue was 1.275 billion yuan (+ 51.6%) and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 227 million yuan (- 7.6%), and the performance was basically consistent with the performance forecast. The net operating cash flow was 1.65 billion yuan (+ 275.7%), the revenue in the first quarter of 2022 was 870 million yuan (+ 214.6%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 274 million yuan (+ 987.7%), and the performance was within the scope of the notice.
Comments:
The performance has increased rapidly in the past 21 years. Q1-Q4 achieved revenue of 280 / 7.8 / 13.3 / 1.275 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 56.31% / 11.9% / 140.7% / 51.6% respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 0.25/3.11/7.0/227 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 938.6% / 20.98% / 303.2% / – 7.6%.
The high-speed growth of performance is related to the sales of covid-19 vaccine (China’s inactivated vaccine was approved for emergency use in May 2021 and overseas adenovirus vaccine was approved for emergency use and sales in October 2021), as well as the weakening of the impact of covid-19 vaccination in the second half of the year, and the gradual recovery of growth of tetralogy vaccine and hepatitis B vaccine. The year-on-year sales expenses in 21 years were – 34.17%, mainly due to the reduction of market investment due to the impact of the epidemic on the sales of class II seedlings; Administrative expenses increased by 50.3% year-on-year, mainly due to the increase of inventory scrap loss, which is expected to be mainly due to the impairment of some covid-19 vaccines.
Quadruple vaccine and hepatitis B vaccine have driven the rapid growth of Q1 in 22 years. In the first quarter of 2022, the revenue reached 870million yuan (+214.6%). Affected by covid-19 vaccination in Q1 of 21, the sales revenue of the main product quadruple vaccine recovered in the first quarter of 22, realizing a year-on-year increase of about 231.4%, and the hepatitis B vaccine increased by about 33.24%; Meanwhile, in the first quarter, a new heavy product, the 13 price pneumonia vaccine, was put on the market, and the 13 price pneumonia vaccine is expected to grow in large quantities in 22 years.
Heavy varieties entered the harvest period and gradually went on sale, driving the rapid growth of performance. The company’s heavyweight 13 valent pneumonia conjugate vaccine was approved in September 2021 and sold in the first quarter, which is expected to increase in large quantities in 22 years. Rabies vaccine (human diploid cells) is expected to be approved for marketing soon; Varicella live attenuated vaccine, tetravalent meningococcal conjugate vaccine and hepatitis A vaccine have all completed phase III clinical trials. At the same time, the company has arranged pentavalent rotavirus vaccine, tetravalent hand, foot and mouth disease vaccine, mumps fengshuipox vaccine, 20 valent pneumonia conjugate vaccine and so on.
Investment suggestion: the heavyweight 13 valent pneumonia conjugate vaccine has been approved. In the past 22 years, it has officially started to increase in volume. The traditional quadruple vaccine has resumed growth, and the hepatitis B vaccine has increased rapidly. We expect the net profit of 22-24 years to be RMB 1.481/18.83/2.230 billion, corresponding to EPS of RMB 2.11, 2.69 and 3.18. The current price of PE for 22-24 years is 31, 24 and 20 times, and continue to give the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the competition intensifies, the R & D is less than expected, and the performance is less than expected.
