\u3000\u3000 Zhejiang Cfmoto Power Co.Ltd(603129) (603129)
In December, large displacement two wheeled vehicles in the industry increased by + 2% year-on-year, and the company's 250cc + two wheeled vehicles accounted for more than 22%
According to the data of China Motorcycle chamber of Commerce: in mid December, 161000 large displacement two wheeled vehicles were sold, with a year-on-year increase of 2%. Among them, 127000 units were sold with 150cc 250cc, 33000 units were sold, with a year-on-year increase of 107%. In December, the company sold more than 3600 250cc two wheeled vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 3%. The sales of 250cc + large displacement two wheeled vehicles exceeded 7400, with a year-on-year increase of 296% and a month on month increase of + 123%; The market share exceeded 22%, with a year-on-year increase of 10.5pct. From January to December, the cumulative sales of domestic 750cc + two wheeled motorcycles exceeded 4300, with a year-on-year increase of 1770%. In December, the monthly sales exceeded 1000 + for the first time, and the sales volume of the industry > 750cc maintained a high growth in recent April. We judge that the company's MT800 has entered the starting stage, and the explosion gene is obvious.
In December, the export of two wheeled vehicles increased by 490% year-on-year, and the sales volume of four wheeled vehicles was nearly 20000, a record high
From January to December, the company's cumulative export sales of two wheeled vehicles exceeded 25000, with a strong year-on-year increase of 200 +%. The competitiveness of two wheeled vehicles in overseas markets has gradually become prominent. In December, the company exported more than 7300 two wheeled vehicles, with a month on month increase of + 203% and a year-on-year increase of + 490%. Among them, the export of 250cc + large displacement two wheeled vehicles exceeded 5700, with a year-on-year increase of + 529% and 217% month on month. We believe that the company's products have been gradually recognized by overseas customers, and high-end products can compete with head brands such as the United States and Japan in mature markets. From January to December, the sales volume of domestic four-wheel vehicles exceeded 450000, with a year-on-year increase of 65%, of which the sales volume of domestic four-wheel vehicles exceeded 37000 in December. In December, the company sold more than 19700 four-wheel vehicles, with a month on month increase of + 14.9% and a year-on-year increase of 94%. In December, the company's production and sales of four-wheel vehicles exceeded expectations again, with sales exceeding 19000 for the first time, a record high. We judge that the new capacity brought by the company's technological transformation has gradually begun to release and will enter the stage of active inventory replenishment. The company's overseas four-wheel vehicle sales are still in short supply. Before further capacity release, it is expected that the company's four-wheel vehicle sales will continue to maintain an average monthly level of about 20000 units at the beginning of 2022.
The market share of the United States continues to increase; Us CPI has reached a new high in nearly 40 years, waiting for tariff adjustment
The United States is an important overseas market for the company, and the market share of four-wheel vehicles in North America continues to increase. The consumption of four wheeled vehicles in North America accounts for about 73% of the global consumption, which is the largest single market. In 2021, the company's total sales of four-wheel vehicles exceeded 167000. It is expected that the market share of the North American market will increase from about 3% last year to 5% this year. We think it will continue to increase to 10% in the future. Us CPI rose 0.5% month on month and 7.0% year-on-year in December, the highest level since 1982. The inflation rate has exceeded 6% for three consecutive months. If the US trade policy towards China is adjusted or the company's goods are exempted from tariffs, the company's profitability will be greatly improved.
Profit forecast and Valuation: the net profit CAGR in the next three years is 40%, maintaining the "buy" rating
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 460 / 7.5 / 1.01 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 27% / 64% / 34%, and PE of 50 / / 30 / 23 times. The net profit CAGR from 2021 to 2023 is 40%. Based on the gradual increase of the market share of the company's four-wheel and two wheel vehicles, the company has a deep understanding of consumers and is good at building popular models, and maintains the buy rating.
Risk warning: overseas development fails to meet expectations; Intensified competition in China; Raw materials, sea freight and exchange rate fluctuation risk
