\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 890 Suzhou Chunqiu Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(603890) )
Event: in the first quarter of 2022, the company realized an operating revenue of 923 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.47%, and the net profit attributable to the parent was 49053400 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 38.19%, deducting the net profit not attributable to the parent of 40497400 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 42.29%.
The epidemic situation in Shanghai has affected the release of short-term performance, and the improvement of laptop customer structure and vehicle structural parts project are progressing steadily. Since February and late March, the epidemic situation in Shenzhen, South China, Shanghai, Kunshan, Songjiang and other regions in East China has been sealed and controlled, which has had an intuitive negative impact on the laptop supply chain. Similar to ODM manufacturers with Guangda, Yingyeda and other processing bases concentrated in East China, it is difficult to carry out normal operation effectively. Although these are not the company's main downstream customers (the company's main downstream Hefei Lianbao epidemic has not been affected), But it has a slight impact on incremental customers. However, the epidemic did delay the company's operation in some areas. In this case, it is not easy for the company to achieve year-on-year growth of revenue and stability of gross profit margin in a single quarter.
In the first quarter, the company was dragged down by epidemic control and logistics interruption, as well as the commencement preparation of several new plants. The cost rates increased to varying degrees compared with the same period in 2020, resulting in a decline in profits to a certain extent. However, it is worth noting that the company's overseas sales revenue accounts for a relatively high proportion. The recent unilateral increase in the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB is expected to become a gain in the exchange rate in the first half of the year, so as to hedge the cost increase caused by some epidemics. In the medium and long term, the improvement of the company's notebook computer customer structure is still continuing, the on-board structural parts project and the cooperation with mainframe customers are also steadily advancing, and the core driving force of growth is still increasing.
The trend of magnesium alloy structural parts of new energy vehicles is gradually becoming, waiting for the release of production capacity and the landing of core customer orders. The restriction of battery energy density on the endurance mileage of new energy vehicles is constantly highlighting the importance of vehicle lightweight. However, driven by the trend of intelligent cockpit, large screen and multi screen are becoming the mainstream route of on-board display, which puts forward higher requirements for the weight, bearing capacity and stability of relevant structural parts. Magnesium aluminum alloy has the advantages of low density, high strength and strong ability to withstand impact load, At the same time, parts, jacket, roof support, steering wheel, seat frame, door frame, latch cover, etc. are also expected to become the application scenarios for the extension of magnesium alloy. At present, the central control screen of Tesla Model3 has been equipped with magnesium aluminum alloy rear shell. The new forces of Chinese car making and traditional car enterprises are also laying out one after another, and the magnesium alloy market is expected to usher in rapid growth. The company is one of the few magnesium alloy structural parts processors in China that has successfully broken through the technical barrier of "semi-solid injection molding" and obtained the approval of many new energy vehicle brand manufacturers at the technical level. At present, it is cooperating with its intended customers to expand the production capacity. "The project with an annual output of 5 million sets of automotive electronic magnesium aluminum structural parts" will be put into operation this year. With the continuous rise of capacity utilization of new production lines and the gradual implementation of customer orders, The vehicle frame business is expected to be cultivated into the second growth pole of the company and open the overall growth ceiling of the company.
Investment rating and suggestions: maintain the buy rating. The rampant epidemic in the first half of the year did have a certain impact on the notebook supply chain and the downstream industry ecology in the short term, but compared with the victory and Yingli of the other two listed companies in the industry, the indicators of spring and autumn are in the lead, the growth rate of sales is also significantly stronger than the industry average, and the pace of structural and incremental product development is also significantly ahead of competitors. It is believed that the company can successfully overcome the adverse impact of the first half of the year and get out of the haze in the middle and late second quarter. It is estimated that the net profit of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 422 million yuan, 508 million yuan and 587 million yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price is 8.33, 6.92 and 5.98 times respectively, maintaining the buy rating.
Risk tips: (1) the supply chain of notebook industry is blocked due to chip supply shortage or blocking due to the epidemic, which will affect the overall shipment; (2) The recovery of the global notebook computer industry is lower than expected. (3) The dollar continues to depreciate unilaterally; (4) The progress of promoting the lightweight trend of new energy vehicles has slowed down.
