\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 556 Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) )
Event 1: the company released the annual report of 2021.
1) revenue side: the company achieved revenue of 1.567 billion, yoy + 109.97%.
2) profit side: the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 173 million, yoy + 193.38%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 173 million, yoy + 302.8%.
3) expense side: gross profit margin 33.75%, yoy-1.6pct; Net interest rate 11.02%, yoy + 3.13pct; The steady rise of net interest rate is mainly due to the decrease of expense rate during the period, in which the expense rates of sales / management / R & D / finance are 4% / 8.4% / 7.5% / 0.4% respectively, yoy-1.2 / – 1.4 / – 4 / – 0.8pct.
4) cash flow: the company has sufficient cash flow, and the net operating cash flow is 76 million yuan, yoy + 1800%.
Business split:
1) cutting equipment: revenue of 980 million, year-on-year + 116.95%; The gross profit margin was 31.11%, with a year-on-year increase of -5.15pct.
2) cutting consumables (diamond wire): the revenue was 292 million, a year-on-year increase of + 37.47%; The gross profit margin was 35.91%, with a year-on-year increase of + 5.08pct. It is mainly due to the successful technical transformation of the company’s “one machine and twelve lines”, and the production capacity and shipment volume of diamond line have increased significantly.
3) chip OEM: the revenue is 106 million and the gross profit margin is 28.72%.
4) innovative business (semiconductor, sapphire, magnetic materials and other cutting businesses): revenue of 105 million, year-on-year + 323.05%; The gross profit margin was 42.41%, with a year-on-year increase of + 5.65pct.
5) tire testing equipment and consumables: the revenue was 47 million, a year-on-year increase of + 12.16%; The gross profit margin was 46.02%, year-on-year + 0.24pct.
6) services and others: the revenue was 21 million, a year-on-year increase of + 41.56%; The gross profit margin was 30.03%, with a year-on-year increase of -5.82pct. 21q4 performance: in Q4 of 21 years, the company achieved 594 million revenue, yoy + 148.26%; Net profit attributable to parent company: 61 million, yoy + 228.22%; Deduct 78 million non attributable net profit, yoy + 526.41%; Gross profit margin 34.70%, yoy + 4.3pct; Net interest rate 10.3%, yoy + 3.1pct; The rates of sales / management / R & D / financial expenses are 3.74% / 6.50% / 6.74% / 0.25% respectively, yoy + 0.3 / – 3.0 / – 4.5 / – 0.1pct; Net operating cash flow: 72 million yuan, yoy + 325%; Event 2: the company released the first quarterly report of 2022, and the performance exceeded the market expectation.
In 2022q1, the company achieved a revenue of 556 million, yoy + 103.06%; Net profit attributable to parent company: 97 million, yoy + 173.28%; Deduction of net profit not attributable to parent company: 97 million, yoy + 244.19%; Gross profit margin 37.66%, yoy + 4.39pct; Net interest rate 17.41%, yoy + 4.47pct; The rates of sales / management / R & D / financial expenses are 3.02% / 7.78% / 5.66% / 0.38%, yoy-1.79 / -0.57 / -1.89 / -0.28pct respectively.
The company’s slice OEM logic has gradually been proved!
In 2021, the company plans to have a chip OEM capacity of 35gw, due to the strong demand for chip OEM; On April 7, 2022, it was announced to expand the lake (phase II) 10GW large silicon wafer, with a total capacity of 45gw. On April 28, the company’s wechat official account disclosed that the capacity of chip OEM under construction and to be built was 47gw. 47gw chip OEM capacity split:
1) Leshan silicon wafer demonstration project: 5GW, supporting Tongwei and huantaimeike;
2) Leshan phase I: 6Gw, supporting Beijing Jingyuntong Technology Co.Ltd(601908) , expected to reach production in 2022;
3) Leshan phase II: 14gw, expected to reach production in 2023;
4) Jianhu phase I: 5GW, expected to reach production capacity in 2022q3;
5) Jianhu phase II: 5 + 10GW = 15gw, which is expected to be put into operation in two stages in 2023 and 2024.
6) on April 28, the company’s wechat official account disclosed that the capacity of chip OEM under construction and to be built was 47gw. Calculation of production rhythm: by combing the production of chip OEM capacity in each base of the company, the company’s chip OEM capacity is expected to be 21 (16 + 5), 40 and 47 (40 + 5 + 2) GW from 2022 to 2024, and the actual production capacity is expected to be 12, 25 and 40gw from 2022 to 2024.
Profit forecast: we expect the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-24 years to be 4.0/5.8/760 million respectively (the net profit in the previous 22-23 years was 344 / 577 million, mainly considering the increase of slicing equipment orders + the profitability of slicing agent). The corresponding PE is 26 / 18 / 14x respectively, maintaining the buy rating!
Risk tip: the competition of slicing equipment is fierce; Intensified competition for chip OEM; Downside risk of product sales price
