\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 546 Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) )
Coal prices soared, profits increased, and performance flexibility is expected to be further released
The company released its annual report, and achieved a revenue of 48.05 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 35.7%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 497.4%; Deduct non net profit of RMB 4.97 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 482.3%. At the same time, the company released its first quarterly report. In 2022, Q1 achieved a revenue of 10.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 14.9%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 418.2%; Deduct non net profit of 1.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 409.4%. Due to the good prosperity of the coal industry and the continuous rise of coal market prices, the company fully implemented lean management, scientifically controlled costs, moderately released advanced production capacity, and greatly improved the profitability of coal. Considering the high year-on-year increase in Q1 performance of the company, we appropriately raised the profit forecast and added the forecast for 2024. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 56.4/59.0 (previous value of 5.4 / 51.2) / 6.2 billion from 2022 to 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 14.2% / 4.7% / 5.1%; EPS is 2.84/2.98/3.13 yuan respectively; The corresponding PE of the current stock price is 4.9 / 4.7 / 4.5 times. Maintain the "buy" rating.
Coal prices soared, profits increased, and Q1 performance increased again
In 2021, the company's coal output was 40.42 million tons, a year-on-year increase of + 6.6%, and the coal sales volume was 68.19 million tons, a year-on-year increase of - 26.1%. Self produced coal: the sales volume is 37.38 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of + 8.4%, the selling price is 635 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of + 83.9%, the cost is 181 yuan / ton, and the gross profit is 454 yuan / ton (absolute value + 273 yuan / ton), with a year-on-year increase of + 151.4%. The cost of self-produced coal of the company is low, benefiting from the high coal price, and the profit of self-produced coal has increased greatly. Trade coal: the sales volume was 30.81 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of - 46.7%, the selling price was 765 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of + 91.7%, and the gross profit was 32 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of + 144.0%. The high coal price caused the decline of trade coal sales. In 2022, the sales volume of commercial coal of Q1 company was 12.16 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of - 45.3%. The comprehensive price was 878 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of + 111.3%, and the gross profit was 380 yuan / ton (absolute value + 297 yuan / ton), with a year-on-year increase of + 358.2%. The high coal price superimposed on the reduction of trade coal, the gross profit per ton of coal increased greatly, and the performance of Q1 continued to grow.
The central coal price rises, and the proportion of performance flexibility & branches is expected to continue
Central rise of coal price: in April 2022, the closing price of q5500 thermal coal in QinGang was 1195 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.8% compared with Q1. The average price of Shanxi main coking coal in April was 3118 yuan / ton, an increase of 28.9% compared with Q1, and the central rise of coal price. The new price mechanism of the NDRC coal long-term association was implemented on May 1. The proportion of the company's long-term association is low. Benefiting from the flexible pricing mechanism of coal price, the performance elasticity is expected to be further released. Downstream demand is improving: with the mitigation of the epidemic and the implementation of the policy of steady growth, the demand for industrial power is expected to rebound and the demand for power coal is improving; There is no significant increase in coking coal in China and there is no supply guarantee policy. There is a long-term shortage of main coking coal in Australia, and the coal price still has the momentum to rise. High proportion Dividend: the distribution plan for 2021 is to distribute cash dividend of RMB 15.67 (including tax) for every 10 shares, totaling RMB 3.11 billion. The dividend proportion is as high as 62.9%, corresponding to the current stock price dividend rate of 11.2%. The company's profit is good, and the dividend is expected to continue.
Risk tip: the economic growth rate is lower than expected; Risk of falling coal prices; The progress of photovoltaic project is less than expected
