\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 104 Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) )
Revenue side: the average price of the joint venture sector increased significantly year-on-year in 2021. 1) In 2021, the company’s revenue was 779.8 billion (year-on-year + 5.1%), including 557 billion / 159.4 billion in vehicle / parts respectively (year-on-year + 4.9% / + 2.9%), and the group’s vehicle sales volume was 5.46 million (year-on-year – 2.5%). In terms of the split of the whole vehicle sector, the sales volume of Volkswagen / GM / Shangtong 5 / SAIC passenger vehicles in 2021 was 1.24 million / 1.33 million / 1.66 million / 800000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 17.5% / – 9.3% / + 3.8% / + 21.7% respectively, and the average price was + 12000 / + 16000 / + 2000 / – 3000 respectively. The lack of core in 2021 led to tight supply, driven by the improvement of product sales structure and terminal discount recovery, and the increase of the average price of the joint venture sector driven the growth of revenue to exceed the sales performance; 2) 1q22 achieved revenue of 182.5 billion (year-on-year – 3.5%) and group sales of 1.22 million (year-on-year + 6.8%). In terms of splitting, the sales of 1q22 Volkswagen / GM / saic-5 / SAIC passenger cars were 330000 / 270000 / 330000 / 190000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 33.0% / – 18.2% / + 5.7% / + 33.7% respectively. It is expected that the decline in the sales proportion of 1q22 SAIC-GM will affect the average price of single vehicle and revenue performance.
Profit side: the profitability of 2h21 joint venture is stronger month on month, and 1q22 is expected to remain strong. 1) In 2021, the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company / net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company were 24.5 billion / 18.6 billion respectively, and the non recurring profits and losses were mainly the profits and losses from the disposal of non current assets (4.5 billion) + government subsidies (4 billion). In 2021, the net profits attributable to the listed companies of the core holding enterprise Zhonghua domain / Shangtong 5 / SAIC finance were 3.8 billion / 600 million / 5.6 billion respectively (before consolidation, year-on-year + 600 million / + 500 million / + 500 million), and the investment income to Volkswagen / GM was 5.1 billion / 3.6 billion respectively (year-on-year – 2.7 billion / + 1.6 billion). In 2021, the profits of Volkswagen / GM / Wuling single vehicle were 8000 / 6000 / 10000 respectively (year-on-year-on-year-on-year-on-year-on-year-on-year-on-year-on-year-on-year-on-year-on-year-on-year-on-year-on-year-on-year-on-year-on-year-on-year-on-year-on-year-on-year-on-year-on-year-on-year-on-year-on-year-on-year-on-year-on-off-on-year-on-year-on-off-on-year-on-off-; 2) 1q22 company’s net profit attributable to parent / net profit deducted from non attributable to parent is 5.5 billion / 5 billion respectively. 1q22’s investment income in associates and joint ventures was 4.5 billion, only – 4.1% month on month in 4q21. Considering that 1q22 Volkswagen / GM sales volume was – 15.4% / – 36.1% month on month respectively, we expect the company’s single vehicle profitability to remain high.
The joint venture is expected to reach the bottom + the independent growth trend continues, and it is optimistic that the company will achieve super industry growth. 1) The joint venture sector is expected to hit the bottom and rebound. In 2022, SAIC Volkswagen has Audi increment (a7l, Q5 eTron and new SUV products), Volkswagen has upgraded lingdu L, Xinwei ran, ID series is switched to 2022 model year, and Langyi is released in the medium term; SAIC GM is expected to resume growth after the short-term inventory pressure is relieved; 2) The growth trend of independent sector is still, and attention is paid to the landing of high-end new energy brands. SAIC passenger cars have the boost impulse of Mg one and the third generation rx5 this year; SAIC GM Wuling continued to launch popular models. Hongguang miniev Gameboy, a new member of Hongguang miniev family, blindly ordered more than 30000 orders in 30 days; Zhiji L7 and Feifan R7 are gradually opened for delivery.
Investment suggestion: we believe that the company’s market share is expected to rise in 2022. Historical data show that the company’s market to book ratio has a significant positive correlation with the market share. It is expected that the upward market share will promote the repair of the company’s valuation. It is estimated that the company’s operating revenue in 2022, 2023 and 2024 will be 836.33 billion yuan, 925.84 billion yuan and 101493 billion yuan, corresponding to the net profit attributable to the parent company of 24.68 billion yuan, 30.28 billion yuan and 34.39 billion yuan. Based on today’s closing price, PE is 7.6 times, 6.2 times and 5.4 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the company’s product launch and sales are less than expected, the mitigation degree of chip shortage is less than expected, and the rise of raw material cost is more than expected
