\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 808 Shenzhen Ellassay Fashion Co.Ltd(603808) )
Event overview
In 2021, the company's revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company / net profit deducted from non-profit was 2.363304/250 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 20% / - 32% / 31%; Excluding baiqiu's revenue of 380 million yuan and net profit contribution of 68 million yuan, it increased by 5.82% / 5.19% / 6.84% compared with 2019; The lower net profit than the performance forecast is mainly due to baiqiu's increase in the amortization of equity incentive expenses. 21q4 revenue / net profit attributable to parent company / net profit deducted from non-profit was 690 / 0.60/0.24 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 12% / - 42% / - 77%. The decline of net profit was mainly due to the sharp decline of gross profit margin, the sharp increase of sales expense rate and the increase of credit impairment loss. 2.5 yuan for every 10 shares, with a dividend rate of 2.5%.
22q1 revenue / net profit attributable to parent company / net profit deducted from non-profit was RMB 628 / 0.47 / 0.49 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 17.2% / - 49.67% / - 45.03%. The revenue exceeded the expectation and the net profit was lower than the expectation.
Analysis and judgment:
Laurel and SP maintained high growth, and 22q1 maintained steady growth affected by the epidemic. By brand, the revenue of the main brands / laurel / edhardy and edhardy X / IrO / self portal in 2021 was RMB 1.011/2.4/3.08/5.92/175 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.79% / 64.89% / 43.1% / 9.04% / 432.62%; 22q1 remained stable, mainly due to the promotion of sales through social marketing. The main brand / laurel / eh / IrO / SP increased by 2% / 17% / 21% / 29% / 92% respectively; The number of stores reached 276 / 68 / 106 / 80 / 20, with a net opening of - 13 / + 17 / - 31 / + 13 / + 14, and the net opening growth rate was - 4.50% / 33.33% / - 22.63% / 19.40% / 233.33%; It is estimated that the main brand single store revenue increased by 12.86%. The 21-year revenue / net profit of baiqiu e-commerce was 1.024190 billion, and the net interest rate increased by 0.33pct to 18.55%. (2) By channel, the offline / online revenue is + 24.96% / + 9.24% to 2.055272 billion respectively, of which the offline direct / franchise revenue is + 28.93% / 5.99% to 1.799529 billion respectively, and the number of direct / franchise stores is + 68 / - 68 respectively.
The high proportion of direct marketing and the increase of online proportion led to a sharp decline in gross profit margin and rigid cost rate during the epidemic period. In 2021, the gross profit margin increased by 0.79pct to 67.02% year-on-year, and the gross profit margins of main brands / laurel / edhardy and edhardy X / self portal were 72.19% / 70.90% / 48.06% / 65.30% / 82.94%, up by 0.31 / - 0.27 / - 14.33/4.67/0.08pct year-on-year respectively. The gross profit margin of 22q1 decreased by 7pct to 62.25%, of which the gross profit margin of distribution decreased by 18pct. During the period, the expense rate increased by 0.76pct to 51% year-on-year, mainly due to the sales / management / Finance / R & D expense rate increased by 3 / - 2 / 0 / - 1PCT to 40.7% / 10.48% / - 0.1% / 2.4% year-on-year respectively. The increase in sales expense was mainly due to the depreciation of 123 million yuan of use right assets. After excluding, the sales expense increased by 13.40% year-on-year and the expense rate decreased by 2.24 PCT. The 85% decline in investment income was mainly due to baiqiu's increase in the amortization of equity incentive expenses.
22q1 inventory increased month on month. 22q1 inventory was 696 million yuan, an increase of 30% over Q4. The number of inventory turnover days in 2021 was 283.78 days, a year-on-year decrease of 22 days. At the end of 2021, the accounts receivable was 304 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2%, and the accounts receivable / income was 13%, with a year-on-year decrease of 2%.
Investment suggestions:
According to our analysis, although the company has suffered a lot in the epidemic, once the epidemic has improved and the company accounts for a high proportion of direct sales, the profit elasticity of the company is large. By brand, laurel and SP are expected to continue their high growth; With the further improvement of the overseas epidemic, iro is expected to continue the improvement trend. Considering that the company promotes sales through social marketing under the epidemic, the revenue side is less affected, but the cost side is under pressure. The revenue forecast for 22 / 23 years is maintained at 2.707/3.059 billion yuan, the forecast of new 24-year revenue is 3.426 billion yuan, the forecast of net profit attributable to parent company is reduced from 384 / 441 million yuan to 335 / 436 million yuan, the forecast of new 24-year net profit attributable to parent company is 492 million yuan, the EPS forecast is reduced from 1.04/1.19 yuan to 0.91/1.18 yuan, and the EPS forecast for new 24 years is 1.33 yuan, The closing price on April 29, 2022 is 9.85 yuan, corresponding to the PE of 22 / 23 / 24 years, which is 11 / 8 / 7X. Equity incentive is expected to boost market confidence and maintain the "overweight" rating. The company plans to buy back 50-100 million yuan of company shares.
Risk tips
The uncertainty of epidemic development; The opening of the store was not as expected; The development of new brands is not as expected; Destocking is less than expected; Systemic risk.
