\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 795 Gd Power Development Co.Ltd(600795) )
One of the core power platforms under the national energy group, with multi energy complementary advantages: the company is a listing platform for the core conventional power generation business under the national energy group, covering thermal power, hydropower, wind power and photovoltaic business sectors. With the continuous operation of new energy installed capacity, the equity installed capacity of clean energy has reached 33.94% in 2021, and the equity installed capacity of thermal power, hydropower and new energy has reached 32.88gw, 10.42gw and 6.47gw respectively. In 2021, due to the performance dragged down by high coal prices, the company achieved an operating revenue of 168185 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.55%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of -1.845 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 146.48%; The performance rebounded in the first quarter of 2022, realizing an operating revenue of 46.784 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.83%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company changed from negative to positive, reaching 1.056 billion yuan.
Actively transform new energy and raise the planning objectives to demonstrate development confidence: at present, the company’s new energy installation is dominated by wind power. By 2021, the company’s wind power and photovoltaic holding installed capacity are 7.07gw and 0.37gw respectively. According to the company’s 14th five year plan, the company plans to add 35gw of new energy installed capacity during the 14th five year plan, of which the company plans to put into operation 4.84gw in 2022, We expect that nearly 10GW new energy projects will be put into operation every year from 2023 to 2025. From the project acquisition, according to the company’s announcement, the company has completed the approval or filing of 6.56gw of new energy projects in 2021. At the same time, according to the information statistics disclosed on the company’s official website, the company’s new energy contracted projects reached 8.46gw in 2021, with rich project reserves.
Hydropower has the right to develop the Dadu River Basin and is optimistic about the room to improve its profitability: by 2021, the installed capacity of the company’s hydropower Holdings has reached 14.97gw, including 11.74gw in the Dadu River Basin. At present, the company still has 3.52gw projects under construction and 2.93gw projects to be built in Dadu River Basin, and the installed capacity still has room for improvement. Affected by the insufficient transmission channel capacity, low on grid electricity price, insufficient joint dispatching capacity and other factors, the profitability of the company’s hydropower units is low at present, and the net profit of a single GW of hydropower in 2021 is only 173 million yuan. In the future, with the continuous promotion of Sichuan UHV project, the growth of power demand and the operation of Shuangjiangkou Hydropower Station (annual regulation reservoir), we expect that the profitability of the company’s hydropower sector will have more room to improve.
Thermal power has a leading profitability and is expected to take the lead in benefiting from the downward trend of coal price: the company fully benefits from the advantages of the group’s coal power integration and has advantages in fuel supply and cost. From 2017 to 2021, the fuel cost per kilowatt hour of the company was more than 0.04 yuan / kWh lower than that of comparable companies. Benefiting from the cost advantage, under the background of rising coal prices in 2021, the loss range of the company’s thermal power business is relatively small, and the gross profit of kWh is about -6.29 yuan / MWh, which is better than other large thermal power enterprises in China. In 2022, with the coal price entering the downward range and the certainty of superimposed electricity price rising, we believe that the company is expected to further benefit from its fuel cost advantage and achieve a significant performance rebound in 2022.
Investment suggestion: as an important conventional energy power generation integration business platform under the national energy group, the company will actively transform new energy power generation, significantly raise the new energy planning during the 14th Five Year Plan period, and superimpose its multi energy complementary advantages. We expect that the company has a large room for performance growth. We estimate that the company’s revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 182.32 billion yuan, 190.84 billion yuan and 205.41 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 8.4%, 4.7% and 7.6% respectively, and the net profit will be 5.028 billion yuan, 6.836 billion yuan and 9.079 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 172.5%, 36.0% and 32.8% respectively; The investment rating of Buy-A is given for the first time, and the six-month target price is 3.6 yuan.
Risk warning: the risk of continuous rise of coal price, the risk of policy promotion being less than expected, and the risk of new energy project construction progress being less than expected
