\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 426 Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) )
Event 1: the company released the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2022q1, the company achieved a revenue of 8.115 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 62.20%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.429 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 54.13%. The performance in the first quarter was in line with market expectations. Event 2: the company plans to invest 3.078 billion yuan to build an 80000 ton nylon 66 project, which is expected to achieve an average annual revenue of 3.356 billion yuan and a profit of 534 million yuan. It is planned to invest 1.031 billion yuan to build high-end solvent projects (300000 tons of DMC, 300000 tons of EMC and 50000 tons of DEC). It is expected to achieve an average annual revenue of 4.545 billion yuan and a profit of 701 million yuan.
The single quarter profit hit a record high, and the company’s performance increased significantly in the first quarter. The gross profit margin of the company’s 2022q1 sales was 39.04%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.23 percentage points, and the net profit margin was 29.93%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.57 percentage points, mainly due to the decline in the prices of some products such as acetic acid and butyl octanol, the year-on-year increase in the prices of raw materials such as power coal and pure benzene, and the increase in R & D expenses; The net operating cash flow was 2.302 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 115.54%, and the construction in progress was 1.169 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 56.17%, mainly due to the company’s adipic acid quality improvement project and the pre capital transfer of amide project; In the first quarter of 2022, the company’s urea, DMF, adipic acid and other products still increased significantly year-on-year, and the price of cost side power coal decreased by about 20% month on month. At the same time, a series of technical transformation projects for increasing production and quality of dimethyl carbonate, caprolactam and supporting devices were completed and put into operation. The company’s performance in the first quarter of 2022 reached a record high, and the performance in the first quarter was in line with market expectations.
Jingzhou base has made steady progress, and the project of green new energy materials has continuously enriched the downstream product line. The company focuses on building the second production base in Jingzhou. The total investment of phase I project is 11.528 billion yuan. At present, it has entered the comprehensive construction stage and is expected to be put into operation by the end of 2023. In addition, the company will further invest 5 billion yuan to build green new energy materials projects, including 100000 t / a NMP unit, 200000 t / a BDO unit, 30000 T / a PBAT and supporting facilities; 100000 tons of acetic anhydride and supporting facilities to further enrich the industrial chain of Jingzhou base.
Dezhou base continues to reduce costs and increase efficiency, and the industrial chain extends to high value-added products. Dezhou coal chemical industry base of the company has obvious cost advantages and promotes the construction of equal capacity substitution 3 × 480t / h high-efficiency large capacity coal-fired boilers and other projects continue to reduce costs and increase efficiency. At the same time, it continues to extend vertically along the industrial chain and develop into the field of new materials with faster downstream demand growth, higher added value and broader market space. At present, the company’s new material directions include 200000 tons of nylon 6 chips, 80000 tons of nylon 66 high-end new material project, PBAT degradable plastic project, DMC, EMC and other high-end solvent projects. The centralized operation of the projects in the next two or three years will significantly increase the company’s performance.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: we estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 7.601 billion yuan, 8.310 billion yuan and 10.049 billion yuan respectively, and the EPS will be 3.60, 3.93 and 4.76 yuan respectively, corresponding to 9.2, 8.4 and 6.9 times of PE, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the international oil price has risen sharply, the macro-economy has declined, and the construction progress of new material projects is less than expected.
