\u3000\u30 Xuchang Ketop Testing Research Institute Co.Ltd(003008) 16 Actblue Co.Ltd(300816) )
Event: the company released the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022: in 2021, the company realized an income of 866 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 27.9%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 70 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 44.4%; In 2022q1, the company achieved a revenue of 230 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 22.6%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 13 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 58.2%.
Comments:
The sales volume of the automobile industry is running smoothly, and the company has grasped the opportunity of national six standard switching to further increase the market share
Under the background of chip shortage, rising prices of raw materials and repeated regional epidemics, China's automobile industry operated smoothly. In 2021, the sales volume of the automobile industry was + 3.8% year-on-year, including the sales volume of passenger cars + 6.5% year-on-year and the sales volume of commercial vehicles - 6.6% year-on-year. In July 2021, the national six standards of the automobile industry were implemented. The company seized the opportunity of standard switching to realize the horizontal industrial expansion from diesel to gasoline and hybrid, road to non road and land to water. The revenue in 2021 was + 27.9% year-on-year. The company's share of the diesel + 4T market continued to rise to 12.91% in 2021.
During the painful period of the Sixth National Day switch, the company's 2021q3-2022q1 profit margin improved quarter on quarter
The large-scale effect of new products of national VI has not yet appeared, and the proportion of self-produced parts is lower than that in the middle and late stage of national v. the sales proportion of gasoline engine products superimposed with low gross profit has increased, and the company's gross profit margin has declined. In 2021, the company's gross profit margin was 23.13%, year-on-year - 12.8%; The gross profit margin of 2022q1 was 23.16%, with a year-on-year increase of -5.5pct. Affected by the increase of R & D expenses and the cost of M & A ABF, the cost rate of the company in 2021 was + 1.4pct year-on-year and that in 2022q1 was + 6.5pct year-on-year. In addition, the company restructured and scrapped the national five products. In 2021, the provision for capital impairment was 13.67 million yuan, accounting for 18.6% of the total profit. Therefore, in 2021, the company's net interest rate was 8.04%, with a year-on-year increase of -10.5pct; The net interest rate of 2022q1 was 5.65%, with a year-on-year increase of -10.9pct. After the implementation of the sixth national standard in July 2021, the profitability of the company has improved quarter by quarter. The gross profit margins of 2021q3-2022q1 are 16.9%, 20.6% and 23.2% respectively; The corresponding net interest rate is 3.1%, 5.1% and 5.7%.
Non road country IV and ship country II standards are about to be implemented, and the growth space of the company continues to open
The non road country IV standard will be fully implemented on December 1, 2022, and the ship country II standard will be implemented on July 1, 2022. With the upgrading of emission standards, the tail gas aftertreatment market will continue to expand. The company has sufficient customer reserves. In the field of non road machinery, it has cooperated with leading complete machine factories and engine factories such as Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) , Anhui Quanchai Engine Co.Ltd(600218) and has realized the supply to leading customers such as CSCEC anchai, hechai heavy industry, Weichai Heavy Machinery Co.Ltd(000880) and is expected to deeply benefit from the large volume of products of non road country 4 and ship country 2.
Profit forecast and valuation
Guoliu switching company is in a painful period. Therefore, we expect the company to realize 107 / 188 / 312 million net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 (377 / 579 million before 20222023), corresponding to 18.7 / 10.7 / 6.4 times of PE, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: the risk of policy promotion falling short of expectations, the risk of downstream industry fluctuation, the risk of raw material price fluctuation and supply, the risk of capacity promotion falling short of expectations, and the risk of R & D caused by the national six technical requirements
