\u3000\u30 Shaanxi Zhongtian Rocket Technology Co.Ltd(003009) 99 Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) )
Event: the company released the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2022q1, the company achieved a revenue of 56.536 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 10.68%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 114 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 92.71%; Deduct non net profit of 827 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 56.90%.
Q1 revenue growth slowed down and cost pressure remained. On the revenue side, the revenue growth of 22q1 company slowed down month on month, mainly due to the impact of the multi-point spread of the epidemic in China on logistics and transportation, terminal sales, catering demand, etc. In addition, superimposed on factors such as weak economy, sluggish consumption and intensified market competition, the sales volume of the company's kitchen food decreased year-on-year. Gross profit margin: the gross profit margin of 22q1 company was 7.15%, year-on-year -6.12pct. The decline of the company's gross profit margin is mainly due to: 1) the profits of medium and high-end retail products have been greatly affected under the influence of the epidemic; 2) The prices of soybeans, soybean oil and palm oil, the company's main raw materials, rose sharply. According to the data of the General Administration of customs, the average import price of 22q1 soybean was 608 US dollars / ton, a year-on-year increase of + 26%. Expense side: the sales expense ratio / management expense ratio of 22q1 company was 2.97% / 1.36% respectively, with a year-on-year ratio of -1.75 / -0.27pct respectively. Among them, the decline of sales expense ratio is mainly due to the decrease of advertising investment. In addition, the 22q1 income tax rate of the company is relatively high, which is expected to be mainly due to the tax rate difference of different subsidiaries. Some high tax rate companies have higher profits and some low tax rate companies have losses. Profit side: the net interest rate of 22q1 company was 0.39%, with a year-on-year ratio of -3.18pct and a month on month ratio of -0.34pct. In the future, with the stabilization of raw material prices, it is expected to continue to increase the profit margin of the company.
The central kitchen project is put into operation, waiting for the release of performance. According to the equity incentive target issued by the company in April 2022, the total product sales volume in the two years from 22 to 23 is not less than 90.2 million tons, the total product sales volume in the three years from 22 to 24 is not less than 137.25 million tons, and the total product sales volume in the four years from 22 to 25 is not less than 185.8 million tons. If it is exactly achieved, the CAGR of the company's sales volume in the 21-25 years is 2.78%, exceeding the CAGR of 2.4% in the past three years. In addition, the company actively develops high growth and complementary businesses such as central kitchen, soy sauce, vinegar and yeast. At present, Hangzhou Fengchu has been put into operation in March this year. It is the Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) first central kitchen park built. The planned production capacity is 40 tons / day of prefabricated vegetables, 120000 meals / day and 4.8 tons / day of sauces. The central kitchen business is expected to fully release the company's comprehensive ability in the field of food science and technology and provide a new growth power for the company's performance. In the long run, we are optimistic about the leading advantages of the company and are expected to achieve stable growth by means of continuous capacity expansion, channel expansion and new business development
Profit forecast: considering the rising pressure on the cost of raw materials such as soybeans this year, the increase in logistics and transportation costs under the influence of the epidemic and the uncertainty of the recovery of terminal demand, the forecast of the company's net profit attributable to the parent company on 2022 / 23 / 24 was lowered to 4.62/58.4/7.76 billion yuan (previously 6.66/81.0/9.09 billion yuan), a year-on-year increase of + 11.9% / 26.2% / 33.0%, corresponding to 58 / 46 / 35 times of PE, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk tip: the production capacity is lower than expected, the cost of raw materials rises, the market competition intensifies, and the promotion of new products is lower than expected.
