\u3000\u30 Beijing Telesound Electronics Co.Ltd(003004) 38 Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) )
Core view
In 2021, the company realized a revenue of 5.69 billion, a year-on-year increase of 56.3%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 180 million, a year-on-year increase of 242.9%. Due to the provision of 68 million asset impairment, the annual performance was slightly lower than the previous performance forecast range of 220260 million. Among them, 4q21 achieved an income of 1.8 billion and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 18.429 million, reversing losses year-on-year. In addition, the company’s 1q22 revenue was 1.66 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 56.5%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 90.578 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 65.51%.
Energy storage business has sprung up. According to cnesa, in 2021, the company was second only to Ningde in the global energy storage battery shipment of Chinese enterprises. In 2021, the energy storage business revenue was 1.74 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 138%, accounting for 31% of the total revenue, and 1q22 revenue was 681 million, a year-on-year increase of + 270%, accounting for more than 40%. By the end of 2021, the company’s total capacity was 16.3gwh, of which the energy storage is expected to account for 34% to 5.6gwh. In 2022, the company’s overall plan is to add 5gwh capacity, and the square battery capacity is sufficient. In the long term, with the completion of Liuzhou production base, the energy storage capacity is expected to be further expanded.
The power business has developed steadily. The company’s power battery business signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Shangtong five, deeply participated in vehicle R & D, delivered more than 60000 sets of products in 2021, and achieved revenue of 820 million, a year-on-year increase of + 124%. At present, it is mainly equipped with Wuling Hongguang Mini / mini macarone, Baojun E300 / Baojun e300p, Wuling Rongguang n300l and other models. The sales volume of 1q22 Shangtong five new energy vehicles is + 32% year-on-year. On March 23, Shangtong five announced an increase in the selling price of its EV ranging from 4000 yuan to 8000 yuan. Among them, Hongguang Mini EV increased by 4000 yuan, an increase of more than 10%. The increase in the terminal selling price provides space for the price adjustment of power battery.
1q22 profit margin rebounded. 1q22’s net profit attributable to the parent company reached 5.45%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.3pct and a month on month increase of + 4.4pct. The main reasons are as follows: 1) although the rapid rise in the price of raw materials has put pressure on the cost side, thanks to the monthly / weekly favorable price mode of some energy storage cells and the increase in the proportion of high gross profit energy storage cell revenue, the 1q22 gross profit margin of the company increased from + 1.6pct to 17.3% month on month. 2) The sales / management expense ratio was – 0.6pct / – 1.2pct year-on-year. With the rapid increase of income driven by energy storage demand, the operating leverage gradually appeared.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
We predict that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 538 million yuan, 856 million yuan and 1179 million yuan respectively, and the earnings per share will be 1.24, 1.97 and 2.72 yuan respectively. With reference to comparable companies in the industry, we believe that the current reasonable valuation level of the company is 38 times the P / E ratio in 2022, and the corresponding target price is 47.12 yuan, maintaining the buy rating.
Risk tips
Customer sales are less than expected; Material price fluctuation risk; Market expansion was less than expected.
