\u3000\u30 Zhongyan Technology Co.Ltd(003001) 96 Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials Co.Ltd(300196) )
Core view
Enjoy price elasticity in 21 years and release capacity elasticity in 22 years. The company recently released the annual report for 21 years and the quarterly report for 22 years. During the reporting period, the revenue was 2.51/750 billion yuan, yoy + 22.7% / 36.1% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 570 / 230 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 111.5/115%. The performance of 22q1 began to show an accelerated trend, mainly because on the one hand, the newly put into operation 100000 ton glass fiber yarn kiln was ignited in September 21, followed by a 2-3-month kiln baking and commissioning period, superimposed with the limited film sound in September 21, and the new output is expected to be released in 22 years; On the other hand, the price adjustment window of some glass fiber products will lag behind the glass fiber yarn for some time, so the price is expected to still enjoy a certain rise in 22 years. Based on the prediction that the glass fiber industry will continue to have a high boom in 22 years, the company is expected to enjoy the performance elasticity of both volume and price.
The average price of glass fiber products is still expected to rise, and overseas demand will resume. The annual output / sales volume of glass fiber and products were 21 / 204000 tons respectively, with a year-on-year increase of nearly 8000 tons, the average price of 8446 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 1673 yuan / ton, and the gross profit of 3450 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 1351 yuan / ton. The growth of operating performance in 21 years is more due to the elasticity brought by the price side. As the price adjustment frequency of long-term association orders in some glass fiber products is low (quarterly / annual), we expect that the average price of some products will still rise this year. In addition, the company has been deeply engaged in the overseas market. In the past 21 years, the overseas market revenue was 560 million yuan, yoy + 38.7%, and the growth rate was significantly higher than that in the Chinese market (18.8%), accounting for 22%. Under the background of the normalization of overseas epidemic, overseas demand will resume growth, which will bring sustained growth to the company's overseas business.
Continue to consolidate the first mover advantage of glass fiber products. The company's main glass fiber products include chopped felt / wet felt / fabric, of which the first two products are in the leading position in the subdivided industry. Due to the wide range of downstream applications and the continuous growth of demand for new energy vehicles / wind power, glass fiber products are currently in the stage of technology improvement and capacity expansion, which will further consolidate the first mover advantage. In terms of fabrics, the company will aim at the application in the field of wind power and continue to expand the scale of production capacity. In terms of coarse sand production, the production cost is reduced by upgrading the kiln and increasing the proportion of self-made wetting agent. In terms of production capacity, the company announced on May 14, 2001 that it would build four 150000 ton glass fiber tank furnace wire drawing production lines, which would be implemented in two phases, two in each phase. At present, the project has not obtained the approval of energy assessment and energy saving review, and the landing time is uncertain.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
EPS is expected to be 1.83/2.02/2.54 yuan in 22-24 years (1.66/2.10 yuan in the original forecast of 22 / 23 years). Since the price of some glass fiber products may still rise in 22 years, we slightly increased the gross profit margin of glass fiber and products in 22 years. We agree to give the company 14xpe for 22 years, with the corresponding target price of 25.62 yuan, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The progress of capacity expansion was lower than expected, the risk of EU anti-dumping investigation on glass fiber was higher than expected, and the duration of the epidemic was longer than expected
