\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 208 Sichuan Em Technology Co.Ltd(601208) )
Contrarian growth, insulation materials and electronic resins drive the company's Q1 growth
The contrarian growth of the company's revenue and profit in the first quarter mainly came from the simultaneous rise in the volume and price of insulating materials and electronic resin. According to the announcement, we calculated that the sales volume and price of insulating materials / optical base film / flame retardant materials / electronic materials of the company increased by 2.88% / 3.64% / - 28.31% / 43.9% respectively year-on-year, and the average price increased by 22.48% / 0.18% / 24.89% / 26.7% respectively. Referring to comparable companies, the company overcame the adverse effects of rising raw material prices and sluggish consumer electronics demand. The main driving force for contrarian growth came from polypropylene film and electronic resin, and the advantages of product diversification appeared. Due to the sharp rise in the cost of polyester chips, the company reduced the output of flame retardant materials with low gross profit, and the optical base film maintained full load production. The average price of Q1 optical base film is 13200 yuan / ton, an increase of 35% month on month, which is expected to be mainly due to the adjustment of product structure. The comprehensive gross profit margin of Q1 was 23.26%, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.74pct and a month on month decrease of 0.53pct. The expenses of the company remained stable during the period, with a net interest rate of 11.31%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.11pct and a month on month increase of 0.68pct.
The construction in progress has increased significantly, and the production capacity has been put into operation to accelerate the future growth of the company
The company's Q1 projects under construction amounted to 958 million yuan, with a month on month increase of 31.6% and a year-on-year increase of 103%. Its Costar Group Co.Ltd(002189) film line 3 has been put into operation. It is estimated that the volume of Q2 is large, and 60000 tons of special epoxy resin is also expected to be put into operation in the second quarter. Oil prices rose and fell, and the current market price of polyester bottle chips is 8275 yuan / ton, 4.9% higher than the previous high. The company's Q2 profitability is expected to improve month on month. New energy, UHV transmission, power generation equipment, rail transit and other industries ushered in the construction peak. At the same time, benefiting from the rapid development of emerging industries such as 5g communication, photoelectric display and new energy vehicles, the localization and substitution process of core raw materials has been significantly accelerated. The company seized the opportunity to expand production rapidly. In the future, many projects will be put into operation one after another, and the endogenous growth momentum will continue to increase. The company recently launched a new phase of equity incentive. Taking the net profit of 21 years as the base and excluding the impact of equity incentive expenses, the assessment objectives of net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-24 years were 477 / 631 / 801 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 40% / 32.14% / 27.03%.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the EPS forecast of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 0.67/0.93/1.23 yuan respectively, and the current price corresponding to PE will be 16.23/11.74/8.86 times respectively. The company overcame the adverse effects of rising raw material prices and sluggish consumer electronics demand and achieved contrarian growth, which once again proved the company's leading position. The company is the leader in the subdivided field of functional film and electronic resin in China, with strong R & D ability, and is expected to become a new material platform company. With the rapid growth of downstream demand and large import substitution space, the "buy" rating is maintained.
Risk tips
Insufficient capacity utilization; Price fluctuation of raw materials; Brain drain; Safety and environmental protection risks; Exchange rate fluctuations, etc.
