\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 154 Baoxiniao Holding Co.Ltd(002154) )
Key investment points
Event: the company released the first quarterly report of 2022, realized an operating revenue of 1.157 billion yuan (+ 16.31%), recorded a net profit attributable to the parent of 206 million yuan (+ 13.72%), and a net profit margin attributable to the parent of 17.78% (yoy-0.54pct).
Strong sales led to Q1 performance exceeding expectations, effective cost control and stable net interest rate. The company achieved an operating revenue of 1.157 billion yuan (+ 16.31%) in Q1 of 22 years, with excellent performance in the first quarter of frequent disturbance of the epidemic. In terms of brands, we expect that the proportion of Baoxiniao Holding Co.Ltd(002154) and haggis dual main brands will be in the range of ~ 30-40%, and both main brands are expected to record double-digit growth; At the same time, the expansion of BAONIAO professional clothing customers was smooth, driving sales to exceed expectations and achieve a growth of 30-40%. 22q1 company realized net profit attributable to parent company of 206 million, net profit attributable to parent company of 17.78%, yoy-0.54pct, various expense inputs basically remained stable year-on-year, only increased year-on-year with income, and the overall expense rate was relatively stable.
The epidemic disturbance is under short-term pressure, and the confidence of active adjustment remains. The disturbance of the epidemic intensified in the middle and lower March, and Shanghai and surrounding cities were seriously affected. Based on the annual report data of 2021, the number of stores in East China accounts for 41%, and we expect that retail sales in East China account for 40-50%. Although the short-term flow has a certain impact, from the perspective of historical recovery, in the 20 / 21 years of frequent disturbance of the epidemic, the company has still achieved a growth rate of more than 20% with single store endogenous as the core, reflecting the strong alpha nature of the company since the return of the chairman. The company is also coping with external shocks through positive dynamic adjustment and cost control. With the improvement of the epidemic situation, the company's terminal channel expansion is expected to advance in an orderly manner, continue to deepen the layout of blank areas in first and second tier cities, and accelerate the channel expansion in third and fourth tier cities.
Earnings and estimates. Since 2018, all brands of the company have maintained a rapid growth of 15% ~ 20%, showing a clear upward trend of brands. At the same time, the company's rich heritage in brand power, channel resources and supply chain resources makes us look forward to its future. We expect the company to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 570 / 680 / 820 million in 22-24 years, with a corresponding growth rate of 22% / 20% / 20% and pe10 / 8 / 7X. We believe that with the landing of the company's fixed increase boots and the continuous signing of hazzys, the company has sufficient upward space, is optimistic about the planning and development of the new three years and maintains the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the epidemic situation worsened beyond expectation; Changes in consumer demand;
