\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 345 Guangdong Chj Industry Co.Ltd(002345) )
The performance of the company recovered in an all-round way in the past 21 years. The net profit deducted in cash was + 152.4%, and the net profit deducted in 22q1 was – 6.6% year-on-year:
In 2021, the revenue was 4.636 billion (YoY + 44.20%), the net profit attributable to the parent was 351 million (YoY + 151.04%), the net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent was 338 million (YoY + 152.43%), and the net profit deducted from non attributable was increased by 12.53pct to 7.39%.
Q4 revenue is 1.187 billion (YoY + 32.16%), net profit attributable to parent company is 66 million (YoY + 11.26%), net profit not attributable to parent company is 63 million (YoY + 2.39%).
22q1 revenue is 1.253 billion (YoY + 11.88%), net profit attributable to parent company is 95 million (yoy-9.41%), and net profit not attributable to parent company is 94 million (yoy-6.61%).
The core driving force of the performance in the past 21 years lies in the expansion of franchising and the entry of e-commerce channel women’s bag business into a benign track:
In terms of franchise, the franchise revenue in 21 years was 1.344 billion / + 84.84%, and the revenue from other businesses (mainly franchise management fees and brand use fees) was 98 million / + 66.12%. The net increase of 170 to 711 franchise stores accelerated (the net increase of 97 franchise stores in 2020), and the net increase of 136 stores in the second half of the year, faster than 34 in the first half of the year.
In terms of e-commerce, the revenue of e-commerce (excluding cloud stores) in 21 years was 1.066 billion yuan / + 47.10%. Among them, the jewelry business increased by 40% year-on-year, and the women’s bag business increased by 85% year-on-year. The women’s bag business has been reborn through all channels. The 21-year revenue / net profit of Guangdong Chj Industry Co.Ltd(002345) International (mainly the subsidiary fianne) is 450 million / 55.06 million respectively, with a net interest rate of 12.3%.
East China & the first and second tier accounts for a large proportion. Orders in March will be affected by the epidemic, and 22q1 revenue / net profit deducted will be + 11.9% / – 6.6% year-on-year. The short-term performance adjustment is in line with expectations: the company’s first and second tier accounts for a high proportion, and the current round of epidemic will have a great impact (Huadong revenue accounted for 47.2% in 21 years). Orders in March will be affected by the epidemic, which will delay the delivery of goods by franchisees. In addition, the obstruction of e-commerce logistics also has a negative impact on the performance (e-commerce revenue accounted for 23% in 21 years).
At the same time, deepen the all-weather brand publicity of the Oriental brand and strengthen the all-weather brand publicity., The performance resilience is enhanced, and it is expected to usher in the accelerated recovery of performance after the epidemic link: Guangdong Chj Industry Co.Ltd(002345) / Fion signed the endorsement of Tang Yixin / Qiao Xin respectively, and cooperated across borders such as terensu / huaxizi. Technological innovation ability + digital customer group insight ability, create a high-quality product matrix, strengthen the imprint of Oriental culture, and launch a series of bamboo / hard stone / good luck / Fangyuan / Zhenjin · Zhichuan / lifelong love / Fion oil paintings. The public-private traffic linkage operation ability is outstanding, with more than 14 million exquisite members. In 2021, the income contributed by member repurchase accounted for about 45% of the total income.
Profit forecast and Valuation: the company has a young orientation, profound process heritage, strong design ability and the rise of beneficiary countries. The company focuses on channel opening and sinking layout, actively invests in online channels and brand marketing, and enters the fast lane of development. Women’s bag business also contributes stable profits. It is expected that the total revenue of the company will reach 4.952/64.34/7.870 billion and yoy + 6.80% / 29.93% / 22.31% respectively in 22 / 23 / 24 years; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 385 / 489 / 592 million, yoy + 9.86% / 26.94% / 21.11%, and the corresponding PE was 9.9x/7.8x/6.4x respectively. There was sufficient room for growth and maintained the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: the epidemic situation is repeated, the competition is intensified, the expansion of franchise is less than expected, and the development of women’s bag is less than expected.
