\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 952 Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation And Development Co.Ltd(601952) )
Core view
2022q1 has a brilliant performance, and the sales volume of core products has increased significantly. The net profit attributable to the parent company was + 2.402 billion yuan, with a year-on-year net profit of + 2.401 billion yuan and a year-on-year net profit of + 2.401 billion yuan, a year-on-year net profit of + 2.401 billion yuan. The significant growth of the company’s performance in 2022q1 is mainly due to the increase in sales of major products such as rice and wheat, which benefited from the upward grain price boom. From January to March 2022, the sales of self-produced large wheat, imported large wheat, rice and wheat seeds increased by 5.48%, 37.22%, 125.91% and 12.04% respectively year-on-year, which has significantly promoted the company’s performance.
The core benefit target of rice and wheat planting is that wheat has significant high-yield advantage. The main business of the company is rice and wheat planting, seed production, rice and edible vegetable oil processing and product sales, and agricultural materials trade. In 2021, the company achieved a total revenue of 10.64 billion yuan (after internal offset), of which the revenue of rice industry, planting industry, edible oil manufacturing industry, agricultural materials industry and seed industry accounted for 29.7%, 22.4%, 13.7% and 12.1% respectively (before internal offset). In terms of rice and wheat planting business, based on the independent production of grain, the company is engaged in the planting of rice and wheat raw grain (including commercial grain and seed raw grain) through contracting and transferring land, and engaged in rice and wheat seed production and rice processing through its leading subsidiaries Dahua seed industry and suken rice industry, mainly selling rice seeds, wheat seeds, rice and wheat Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) . In 2021, the company continued to consolidate the high-yield advantage of grain, with a total annual output of 1.266 million tons of wheat and rice (including contract planting output). Among them, the average yield of wheat in the Department was 1147 kg per mu, an increase of 4 kg over the previous year, a record high. Considering the strong support of China’s wheat fundamentals in 2022 and the problems of late sowing and low germination rate in the main wheat producing areas in 2021, the output may be reduced in 2022, and the company is expected to become the target that benefits most from the rise of wheat grain prices.
Independently operate the planting base and master the upstream core cultivated land resources. As of autumn sowing in 2021, the company has independently operated about 955000 mu of high-quality production base by signing the land contract agreement with the agricultural reclamation group. At the same time, the company complies with the national land transfer policy and orderly promotes the land transfer. The area of land transfer (including land trusteeship) has reached 289000 mu. In the future, the planting scale of the company is expected to benefit from the gradual implementation of the national land contract and management right transfer policy and continue to grow upward. In addition, the contract fee of the new agreement signed by the company has decreased significantly, which will help the company control the land operation cost. According to the supplementary agreement to the land contract agreement signed by the company and Nongken group in February 2022, the average annual contract fee / rent unit price per mu of the company in the latest contract period (202111.01204110.31) is 361.64 yuan, a decrease of 9.2% compared with the previous contract period (201611.01202110.31).
Risk tip: uncertainty risk caused by bad weather.
Investment suggestion: high quality planting enterprises, beneficiaries of high grain prices and boom, maintain the purchase rating. The company has mastered the upstream planting source, the grain cost is fixed, and the planting scale is expected to continue to improve through circulation and other forms to maintain steady growth. It is estimated that the net profit of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 864 / 993 / 983 million yuan respectively, EPS will be 0.63/0.72/0.71 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 22.0/19.2/19.4 times respectively.
