\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 991 Ganyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002991) )
Core view
China is the leader of seed leisure snacks, focusing on product strength and building core competitive barriers. Since its establishment, the company has been focusing on the R & D, production and sales of seed leisure snacks. Under the leadership of the chairman, the company has successfully created popular products such as crab yolk melon seeds, crab yolk broad beans and original green beans, and gradually established its leading position in the seed leisure food market. The company has always focused on building products, polishing products from raw material procurement, non-standard technology, product innovation and other aspects, and building the company’s core competitiveness.
Mustard flavored Macadamia fruit supported the growth of 21q4 in large quantities in specific channels, and 22q1 operated steadily under the disturbance of many short-term factors. In 21 years, the company achieved revenue of 1.294 billion yuan (+ 10.38%), net profit attributable to parent company of 154 million yuan (- 14.29%), net profit not attributable to parent company of 128 million yuan (- 14.9%). Among them, the company’s 21q4 achieved a revenue of 438 million yuan (15.81%), a net profit attributable to the parent company of 76 million yuan (+ 38.42%), and a net profit not attributable to the parent company of 63 million yuan (+ 28.93%), which showed a bright performance in the fourth quarter, mainly due to the rapid volume of mustard flavored Macadamia fruit after it was put on the shelves in Sam’s shop. 22q1 company achieved revenue of 320 million yuan (- 5.19%), net profit attributable to parent company of 23 million yuan (- 45.3%), net profit attributable to non parent company of 24 million yuan (- 28.5%), mainly due to the early spring festival and the impact of the epidemic on construction and logistics. The overall profitability of the company is under pressure under the influence of a significant increase in costs, increased R & D investment, increased employee compensation and welfare, and increased marketing publicity. The company has raised its price by 10% in 21 years and has been successfully transmitted to the terminal, and its profitability is expected to be repaired in the future.
The results of the launch of new products can be expected, and equity incentive shows development confidence. The company has held several new product launches in many places from February to March 2022, and launched a series of products such as flavor nuts and peanuts, rice products, potato chips, crispy and rice crispy. Among them, flavor nuts are a series of products innovatively launched by the company in line with the consumption trend, which is expected to become a new growth driver of the company; Rice products and other new products also contain some innovative elements, mainly in bulk, which can help the company upgrade its bulk cabinets and improve the revenue of single stores. At the same time, the company launched the equity incentive plan, and the performance evaluation goal is that the year-on-year growth rate of revenue and net profit from 2022 to 2024 will not be less than 20% / 30% / 30.13%, demonstrating development confidence.
Risk warning: industry competition risk; Price fluctuation risk of raw materials; The epidemic affects terminal demand.
Investment suggestion: the launch of new products is expected to open up growth space, cover for the first time, and give a “buy” rating.
The company is a leading enterprise of seed snacks in China. It always focuses on the creation of products. The company’s old three products (melon seed kernel, broad bean and green pea) have outstanding advantages and still have great development space; The launch of new series further improves the product matrix, which can help the company expand and sink its channels. We expect that the company’s revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 1.6/21/2.7 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 25% / 28% / 28%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 190 / 240 / 320 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 20% / 32% / 32%; The current share price corresponding to PE is 22 / 17 / 13X, which is covered for the first time and rated as “buy”.
