\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 180 Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) )
Event:
Recently, the company released the first quarterly report of 2022. In Q1 of 2022, the company achieved a revenue of 630 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 61.02%; Net profit attributable to parent company and net profit deducted from non parent company were – 396 million yuan and – 430 million yuan respectively. The year-on-year loss increased significantly, mainly because the increase in drug sales revenue compared with the same period of last year could not offset the decline in technology licensing revenue (including the down payment of $150 million paid by coherus for the teraprizumab cooperation project).
Comments:
The sale of treprizumab is on track, and the approval of major indications is imminent
The sales activities of treprizumab have achieved initial results. Q1 achieved sales revenue of 110 million yuan, with significant growth year-on-year and month on month. The sales activities in the Chinese market have come out of the trough and gradually returned to normal. The company is expected to achieve more than 50% of the “new patient” market share in the field of indications included in the medical insurance catalogue. In July and December 2021, SNDA of treprizumab combined with chemotherapy in the first-line treatment of esophageal cancer and non-small cell lung cancer was accepted by nmpa respectively. It is expected that the two major indications will be approved within the year, which is expected to boost the continuous growth of treprizumab sales.
A number of phase III clinical trials of RdRp inhibitor vv116 are in progress, and the technical route of 3clpro is laid out at the same time
The company is actively promoting three key clinical registrations for vv116. The three trials are the global multicenter phase II / III clinical trial for mild to moderate patients, the global multicenter phase III clinical trial for moderate to severe patients and the phase III clinical trial comparing paxlovid for mild to moderate patients. At present, the first patient has been enrolled. Among them, the global multicenter phase II / III clinic for mild to moderate patients has set up a clinical research center in Hong Kong, and we expect to accelerate the enrollment process. In addition, according to a recent article published in signal transmission and targeted therapy, vv116 has excellent antiviral effect on multiple sensitive RSV cell lines and is a valuable clinical candidate for the treatment of RSV infection.
The company has reached a cooperation with Wangshan wangshui to develop an oral drug targeting 3CL protease covid-19. Preclinical studies have shown that vv993 is a safe, oral and effective candidate compound against covid-19 virus in animal models, which has important development value. It can be used alone or in combination with vv116.
Profit forecast and investment rating
We estimate that the company’s revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 2.75 billion, RMB 3.251 billion and RMB 4.368 billion, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB -592 million, – 494 million and – 308 million. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: the risk of repeated epidemic, the risk of changes in medical insurance policies, the risk of failure of clinical trials, and the risk that the sales of drugs after listing are less than expected
