\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 019 Yifan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002019) )
Event: Recently, the company released the first quarter report of 2022. In the first quarter of 2022, the operating revenue was 906 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.53%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 121 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.3%; Deduct non net profit of 768214 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 31.9%. The year-on-year decrease was mainly due to the decline in related medical service revenue due to the centralized purchase of the company's cooperative products in 2021.
F-627 is expected to be listed in many places this year, and the global commercialization is smooth
F-627 has completed its listing application in China, the United States and Europe, among which the application for listing license obtained from nmpa in China has been accepted; Has entered the review process in Europe; In the United States, FDA has completed the technical review, but due to covid-19 epidemic control, the on-site verification time is to be determined. At the same time, the process of f-627 global commercialization cooperation is progressing smoothly. The company has reached exclusive distribution cooperation of f-627 with Zhengda Tianqing, kalteq, apogepha and other companies in China, Greece, Cyprus, Germany, Switzerland and Brazil, and may further expand business cooperation opportunities in other high-value regions of the EU on the basis of existing cooperation with apogepha.
In the first quarter, the progress of multi pipeline was promoted, and the research projects of innovative drugs were progressing smoothly
The company actively promotes the clinical and listing application of several research projects. In the first quarter, several holding subsidiaries of the company obtained the drug registration of ambroxol hydrochloride injection, dopamine hydrochloride injection, tirofiban hydrochloride injection and Albertine respectively α Acceptance of marketing application for injection and consistency evaluation of cefuroxime sodium for injection. F-652 is a new target innovative drug. Clinical studies on five indications have been carried out in China and the United States: acute graft-versus-host disease, alcoholic hepatitis, chronic acute liver failure, acute pancreatitis and covid-19 pneumonia. At present, 19 subjects have been enrolled in the clinical trial of f-652 in the treatment of chronic and acute liver failure in China. F-899 has completed the application for ind in China and entered clinical phase I in 2021. At present, the single dose climbing test has been completed to achieve the expected effect.
The rise in the price of calcium pantothenate has led to an increase in exports and deferred overseas income
Since 2022, the price of calcium pantothenate has increased rapidly due to the rise of upstream raw material prices and dual control of energy consumption. According to Boya Hexun, the median price of calcium pantothenate is 360 yuan / kg, which is nearly four times higher than the low price of 73.5 yuan / kg in 2021. According to the data of Chinese customs, as the price of calcium pantothenate has returned to a high level, even under the influence of the epidemic, the deterioration of shipping and aquaculture effects, the export volume of calcium pantothenate has still achieved positive growth when the export volume of calcium pantothenate has decreased and increased for three consecutive months in 2022. Given that the company is the industry leader of calcium pantothenate and has a high global market share, calcium pantothenate products are expected to drive the profit growth of the company. However, the reason is that overseas orders are generally signed one quarter in advance, most of which are not executed in the current quarter and are still digesting some low-cost products. With the consumption of low-cost inventory, we predict that the overseas income benefiting from the price rise of calcium pantothenate will be deferred, and the company's performance will benefit from the raw materials and drugs sector in the future.
Profit forecast and investment rating
We predict that the company's operating revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 5.268 billion yuan, 5.490 billion yuan and 6.044 billion yuan respectively. Maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: covid-19 epidemic situation, the commercialization progress is less than expected, and the risk of new drug research and development
