\u3000\u30 Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co.Ltd(003006) 01 Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) )
Events
The company released the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2021, the company realized an operating revenue of 3.652 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 61.51%, a net profit attributable to the parent of 1.263 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 86.01%, and a net profit not attributable to the parent of 1.191 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 91.90%.
In 2022q1, the company realized an operating revenue of 871 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 214.60%, a net profit attributable to the parent of 274 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 987.71%, deducting 248 million yuan of non attributable net profit, a year-on-year increase of 276378%.
Pcv13 was approved to be listed in 2021, and the volume can be expected
In 2021, the company’s immunization planning vaccine revenue was 1.164 billion yuan (year-on-year + 393695%), with a gross profit margin of 80.61%. The income of non immunization planning vaccines was 2.486 billion yuan (year-on-year + 11.47%), and the gross profit margin was 69.45%. Covid-19 inactivated vaccine was approved for emergency use in China in May 2021, bringing incremental performance. The company’s recombinant novel coronavirus vaccine has been authorized for emergency use in Indonesia, and the company’s overseas export revenue has reached 957million yuan.
In 2021, it is expected that the production and growth of hepatitis B vaccine will resume due to the run of terminal resources caused by covid-19 vaccination. The approval and issuance of main varieties in 2021: 4.3173 million doses of quadruple vaccine (year-on-year -22.40%), 257478 million doses of hepatitis B vaccine (year-on-year +118079%), 417600 doses of 13 valent pneumonia vaccine (approved in September 2021 and first approved and issued in October 2021), 2.9131 million doses of Hib vaccine (year-on-year +19.96%), 448800 doses of freeze-dried Hib vaccine (approved in June 2021 and first approved and issued in September 2021), and 1359800 doses of 23 valent pneumonia vaccine (year-on-year -66.71%).
Steadily promote product R & D and actively expand the layout of new technology fields
The company has arranged a wealth of pipelines under research, with more than 30 projects under research. Pcv13 and lyophilized Hib vaccine were approved for listing in 2021; Lyophilized human diploid crazy vaccine has applied for drug registration approval and completed on-site registration verification. We expect it to be approved in 2022; At the same time, the company has arranged to develop multiple vaccines such as oral pentavalent reconstituted live attenuated rotavirus vaccine (Vero cell), tetravalent hand, foot and mouth disease vaccine, mumps fengshuipox vaccine, tetravalent influenza vaccine and 20 valent pneumonia conjugate vaccine. In the future, with the approval and listing of the company’s heavy products, the company will lay a foundation for the improvement of the company’s performance. At the same time, the company has expanded its layout in new technology fields, including mRNA technology, virus vector technology, etc.
Profit forecast and valuation rating
In view of the acceleration of the company’s silianmiao and pcv13, we adjusted the operating revenue forecast from 2022 to 2024 to RMB 4.563/57.116646 billion (the previous value was RMB 4.1386666 billion from 22 to 23 years), with a year-on-year increase of 24.93% / 25.17% / 16.37% respectively; The profit attributable to the parent company is predicted to be 1.372/1.818/2.230 billion yuan respectively (the previous value is 1.260/2.052 billion yuan in 22-23 years), maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the R & D progress is less than expected; The progress of vaccine approval is less than expected; Product sales are less than expected; Risk of adverse events from vaccination
