\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 798 D&O Home Collection Co.Ltd(002798) )
Key investment points
Event: the company released the 2021 annual report and the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2021, the revenue reached 6.147 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 9.05%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 69.116 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 87.80%. 22q1 achieved a revenue of 765 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 33.99%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was -908507 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of -220.01%.
The growth of strategic engineering business slowed down, and the proportion of distribution channels continued to increase. The revenue growth of 21q1-4 was + 46.16% / + 3.07% / + 16.78% / – 7.58% respectively. The revenue growth of Q4 decreased year-on-year, which was mainly affected by the downward demand for real estate. In 2022q1, the company’s operating revenue decreased by 33.99% year-on-year, mainly because Q1 is a traditional off-season and the impact of the epidemic. Based on the company’s initiative to control the volume of big B business. In 2021, the company’s distribution channel revenue increased by 31.80% year-on-year, and the channel revenue of direct projects decreased by 3.45% year-on-year. In 2021, the proportion of the company’s distribution channel sales revenue increased from 35.46% to 42.86%.
The impact of impairment pressure on operating performance. In 2021, the gross profit margin of sales was 26.07%, down 4.39 percentage points year-on-year; The gross profit margin of 22q1 sales was 18.59%, down 11.92 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to the rapid rise in the prices of upstream raw materials and energy such as coal and natural gas in the second half of 2021. In 2021, the company’s net profit margin on sales was 1.08%, down 8.92pct year-on-year. In addition to the impact of gross profit margin, the sharp decline in net profit margin is mainly due to the company’s provision for credit impairment losses. In 2021, the company accrued credit impairment loss of 309 million yuan, of which 21q4 accrued credit impairment loss of 269 million yuan. The net profit margin of Q1 sales in 2022 was – 11.91%, a year-on-year decrease of 18.27 percentage points, mainly due to the decrease of gross profit margin of 22q1 sales and the increase of expense rate during the decline of Q1 revenue scale.
Affected by the cash payment, the operating cash flow declined and the inventory balance increased significantly at the end of 21 years. The net cash flow from operating activities in 2021 was – 148 million yuan, a year-on-year change of – 175 million yuan. 1) Cash to cash ratio: in 2021, the cash to cash ratio was 100.93%, with a year-on-year increase of + 4.07pct. At the end of 21, the balance of accounts receivable and notes of the company was 3.729 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 10.48%; 2) Cash ratio: in 2021, the cash ratio was 107.89%, with a year-on-year increase of + 18.73pct. At the end of 2021, the company’s inventory balance was 1.272 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 47.80%, mainly due to the increase of inventory goods and contract performance costs. 22q1 net cash flow from operating activities was -423 million yuan, with a year-on-year change of – 1.14%, which was basically the same as that in the same period of 21 years.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the ceramic tile market has a large scale, and the centralized purchase of b-end has accelerated the trend of brand concentration. In recent years, Oushennuo has grasped the large-scale trend of real estate engineering business, expanded rapidly, and the engineering business share has increased significantly. At the same time, the layout of all channels has been expanded, and the layout of dealers and stores has been promoted rapidly. The development of small b-end market is worth looking forward to; Release the convertible bond issuance plan, raise funds to expand production and supplement liquidity, improve capital strength, and expand production capacity to ensure business expansion. We expect that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 299 / 491 / 675 million respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 11x / 7X / 5x respectively. It will be covered for the first time and rated as “overweight”.
Risk tips: the risk of sharp decline in demand, the risk of intensified industry competition, the risk of fluctuations in raw material and energy prices, and the risk of changes in management team.
