\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 985 China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) )
Event:
The company released the annual report of 2021 and the quarterly report of the first quarter of 2022: in 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 62.367 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.30%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 8.038 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.07%. In the first quarter of 2022, the company achieved an operating revenue of 17.099 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.78% (after adjustment); The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.884 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 53.25% (after adjustment).
Comments:
Q1 performed brilliantly and profits continued to release
In the first quarter of 2022, the company's cumulative commercial power generation was 47.034 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 15.52%; The cumulative on grid power was 44.442 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 16.56%; In terms of market electricity price, according to the listing and trading results of Jiangsu power market within the month, the average transaction price of market electricity in the first quarter increased by nearly 20% compared with the benchmark electricity price, and the rise of volume and price helped the company realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.884 billion yuan in 2022q1. After retroactive adjustment, the growth rate was as high as 52.25%, with rapid improvement of profitability and continuous release of profits.
Looking forward to 2022, the company's performance still has great room for improvement
1) we believe that the increase in electricity price is expected to provide upward flexibility for the company's annual performance in 2022. Despite the short-term impact of suspension and shutdown caused by the epidemic in East China, the market price performance in April is still relatively strong: according to the monthly listing and trading results of Jiangsu power market, the average transaction price of power in the market in late April was 0.4665 yuan / kWh, up 19.3% from the benchmark price, still close to the top.
2) when Fuqing unit 6 is put into commercial operation, the nuclear power generation capacity will be further increased. With the successful commercial operation of Fuqing No. 6 unit on March 25, 2022, the company's holding of nuclear power units in operation has increased to 25, and the assembly capacity of the holding of nuclear power units in operation has increased from 22.549 million kW to 23.71 million KW. Benefiting from the commercial operation of the new nuclear power unit, we expect that the on grid power of the company's nuclear power division is expected to increase to 172.77 billion kwh in 2022, which will promote the growth of the company's performance in 2022.
3) new energy is developing rapidly, and the scenery business contributes new profit points. As of March 31, 2022, the installed capacity of the company's new energy in transit was 8.8733 million KW, and the installed capacity of projects under construction was 2.065 million KW; According to the disclosure of the company's annual report, the company's new energy business subsidiary, China Nuclear Huineng, realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.275 billion yuan in 2021, with a significant year-on-year increase of 479.10%. We believe that the new energy business has become the second profit point of the company, and the segment profit is expected to continue to grow with the increase of new energy installed capacity.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
It is estimated that the operating revenue of China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) 2022-2024 will be 74.145 billion yuan, 76.572 billion yuan and 79.914 billion yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 11.134 billion yuan, 12.016 billion yuan and 13.284 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 12.07, 11.18 and 10.12 yuan respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating and the target price will be 11.27 yuan.
Risk warning: nuclear safety accident risk; Risk that the progress of nuclear power units under construction is less than expected; The risk that the development of new energy business is less than expected; The risk of weak social electricity demand.
