\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 318 Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) )
Core view
The operating profit grew steadily and the solvency adequacy ratio was considerable. The company’s 1q22 net profit attributable to the parent company was 20.7 billion yuan, yoy-24.1%, mainly due to the impact of short-term investment fluctuations. After excluding the one-time impact, the operating profit attributable to the parent company was 43 billion yuan, yoy + 10%, with a relatively stable growth. Under the adjustment of the second generation phase II project, the core / comprehensive solvency adequacy ratio of life insurance was 143% and 251% respectively, down 84pp and 21pp compared with the beginning of the year, both significantly higher than the regulatory requirements, and the solvency was considerable. The number of individual customers and Internet customers was 223 million and 657 million respectively, an increase of 0.7% and 1.6% respectively over the beginning of the year. The online rate in the post epidemic era continued to deepen.
Last year, the high base superimposed the adjustment of product structure, NBV still showed a downward trend, but the human capacity increased. The disturbance of the epidemic situation superimposed on the high base of serious illness insurance last year. In the first quarter, the new life insurance orders fell by 15.4% to 51.2 billion yuan. In addition, due to the slightly lower increased lifetime value rate this year, the overall value rate under product structure adjustment fell by 6.8pp to 24.6% year-on-year, making NBV fall by 33.7% to 12.6 billion yuan year-on-year. The scale of the agent team was still adjusted, with 538000 at the end of the first quarter, a further decrease of 10.4% over the beginning of the year, but the decline was significantly narrowed compared with – 41.4% in 2021; In addition, the production capacity can also be significantly improved. NBV per capita increased by 17% year-on-year, and the proportion of agents with college degree or above increased by 3.5pp year-on-year. We can continue to pay attention to the capacity improvement space under the stable team size.
The quantity and quality of auto insurance have increased simultaneously, and the logic is consolidated, and the capital market affects the investment performance. The total premium of property insurance increased by 10.3% year-on-year, of which the growth rate of automobile insurance was 10.4%, accounting for 64.5%; The growth momentum of Italian health insurance was strong, with 1q22 reaching 38.5%, mainly due to the continuous activation of residents’ security demand. The comprehensive cost ratio increased by 1.6pp to 96.8% year-on-year, mainly due to the increase in compensation expenses of guarantee insurance business under the influence of the epidemic. However, with the gradual weakening of the impact of the epidemic, cor is expected to be repaired quickly. In the first quarter, affected by the fluctuation of the capital market, the annualized total investment return fell by 0.8pp to 2.3%; The long-term interest rate fluctuated, and the net return on investment decreased slightly by 0.2pp to 3.3% year-on-year, maintaining relative stability.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
The company’s technology business continues to incubate, its comprehensive financial advantages continue to highlight, the short-term investment disturbance does not affect the long-term value growth, and maintains the annual EV forecast. It is estimated that the EVPs in 202224 will be 85.53/95.88/107.39 yuan (before maintenance), and the corresponding P / EV will be 0.52x/0.46x/0.41x respectively. Using the segment valuation method to evaluate the overall value of the company, it is estimated that the target market value in 2022 is 1209 billion yuan, the target price is 66.14 yuan (the original target price is 66.52 yuan), and the corresponding P / EV of the group in 2022 is 0.77x, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The sales of new orders are less than expected, the long-term interest rate continues to decline, the equity market fluctuates sharply, the impairment risk of equity investment is accrued, and the policy risk is.
