\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 363 Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) )
Event: the company released the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022, and achieved an annual operating revenue of 18.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 56.6%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was -1.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 365.3%. In the first quarter of 2022, the operating revenue was 4.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 6.7%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was - 350 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 317.1%.
Production capacity was released and sales increased significantly. With the company's newly-built pig farms put into operation one after another, the production capacity is released, and the number of pigs is greatly increased. In 2021, the number of pigs is 3.2459 million, a year-on-year increase of + 141.1%, of which piglets account for about 58.3% and fattening pigs account for about 40.61%; In the first quarter of 2022, the number of pigs sold was 1046800, a year-on-year increase of + 95.81%, continuing the trend of high growth. At present, the company has a certain breeding scale and volume, and the production capacity of fixed assets and the stock scale of fertile sows have the foundation to support the continuous growth of subsequent marketing scale. The company strives to reach the marketing target of 5.5 million in 2022 and 10 million in 2024. With the gradual stabilization of production capacity, the company's pig breeding industry will shift from the "quantity" stage to the "quality improvement" stage. From the perspective of performance, in the first quarter of the overall downturn of pig price, the net profit attributable to the mother was significantly improved compared with the fourth quarter of 2021, reflecting the initial effect of cost reduction and efficiency improvement. The company's goal is to make every effort to reduce the fattening cost to 16 yuan / kg.
Feed volume and supporting business have been steadily promoted. 1) In terms of feed, the company's sales volume increased significantly in 2021, realizing feed sales of 2.8408 million tons, a year-on-year increase of + 36.5%. According to varieties, pig feed was 1.6865 million tons, a year-on-year increase of + 66.42%; 733800 tons of poultry feed, a year-on-year increase of - 9.72%; The sales volume of other materials (aquatic materials, ruminant materials and others) was 420400 tons, with a year-on-year increase of + 64.72%. Aquatic materials and pig materials increased significantly. At present, the company has a feed production capacity of more than 7 million tons, with an operating target of 4 million tons in 2022 and a target growth rate of + 40.8%. The short-term goal of the company's feed business is to export more than 5 million tons and the medium-term goal is 10 million tons. 2) In terms of animal protection, in 2021, the company achieved good results in expanding the aquatic animal protection, so that the overall income of animal protection increased by 2662 to 338728 million yuan, with a gross profit margin of 42.67%, a year-on-year increase of + 0.08 PCT. 3) In terms of slaughtering and food, in 2021, the company acquired a new slaughtering enterprise and began to layout pork sales and segmentation centers in key regions of the country. The annual slaughtering revenue has reached 1.91 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 374.01%.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
Considering the high rise in the price of raw materials in the first half of the year, it is expected that the cost center of the whole year will move upward, and the sales volume expectation, feed price and the proportion of eliminated pigs will be reduced according to the annual report, so the profit forecast for 20222023 will be reduced. It is expected that the company will realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of -570 million, 1509 million and 399 million in 20222024 (originally predicted to be -447 million and 1.631 billion in 22-23 years), with a year-on-year increase of + 62.5%, 364.9% and - 73.6% respectively, maintaining the valuation level of comparable companies referred to in the previous time, Give 23-year 11xpe, target price 23.93 yuan, maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: epidemic risk, pig price fluctuation risk, cash flow risk, raw material price fluctuation risk, food safety risk, etc.
