\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 304 Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) )
Event overview
In 2021, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 25.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 20.1%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 7.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 0.34%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of RMB 7.37 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 30.4%. Among them, 21q4 achieved a total operating revenue of 3.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 55.8%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 295 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of -0.05%. 22q1 achieved a total operating revenue of 13.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 23.8%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 29.1%. Higher than market expectations.
Analysis and judgment:
We exceeded the target in 21 years and made a good start in 22 years. Dream Blue M6 + led growth in large quantities
In the past 21 years, the company achieved revenue of 25.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 20.1%, sales volume of + 18.13% and ton price of + 1.67%. The revenue growth rate exceeded 15% of the target set in the 21-year equity incentive plan, and was also higher than the market expectation. 21q4 company achieved a revenue of 3.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 55.8%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 295 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 0.05%, mainly due to changes in the price of the company’s foreign equity investment assets. 22q1 company achieved a revenue of 13.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 23.8%. Combining 21q4 and 22q1, the company achieved a total revenue of 16.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 29.3%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of RMB 5.28 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 41.6%; Cash collection was 22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 27.5%. The balance of contract liabilities of the company at the end of 21 was 15.8 billion yuan, an increase of about 80% over the end of 20, reflecting the enthusiasm of channel collection; The balance of contractual liabilities of 22q1 company was 9.77 billion yuan, an increase of more than 50% over last year. From the perspective of the rhythm of revenue recognized by contractual liabilities, the balance of contractual liabilities of 22q1 company decreased by about 600 million yuan compared with the end of 21 years, and the amount of revenue recognized by 22q1 contractual liabilities increased by more than 100% compared with the same period last year. The combination of the above two points reflects that the first quarterly report has been confirmed and the margin is still maintained, and the certainty of the later report is still high. In terms of product categories, in the past 21 years, the operating revenue of medium and high-grade liquor reached 21.521 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 22.0%, and that of ordinary liquor reached 31.18%, a year-on-year increase of + 16.1%. The revenue growth rate of medium and high-grade liquor was higher than that of the overall revenue. We judge that the sales growth rate of the company’s core medium and high-end single product Dream Blue M6 + 21 is about 50%, which is still expected to maintain a growth rate of more than 40% this year, and other brands such as sea blue and sky blue will maintain steady growth.
Multi channel marketing initiatives led to a slight increase in sales rates, and the overall rates were controllable
The overall sales expense rate of the company in 21 years was 14%, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.64pct. The sales expense ratio of 21q4 company was 39.4%, with a year-on-year increase of + 19.41pct. We judge the main reasons for the increase in sales expenses: 1. The company increased the investment in advertising and promotion expenses and e-commerce expenses in 2001; 2. The company expanded the scale of sales personnel from 5644 in 20 years to 6087 in 21 years; 3. 21q4 centrally cashes the channel fees. The sales expense rate of 22q1 company was 6.59%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.29pct, which was normal. On the whole, the annual expense rate of the company in the 21st was 20.65%, with a year-on-year rate of -0.7pct, which was in a normal state.
We will continue to promote the construction of the distribution system of “one business first, supplemented by multiple businesses”, and digital operation has become a highlight
According to the disclosure of the 21st Annual Report, Yanghe currently has 8142 dealers, including 2950 in the province and 5192 outside the province, which are 909, 166 and 743 fewer than that in 2020. Yanghe continued the policy of clarifying distribution channels in the previous two years, continued to promote the distribution system of “one business as the main and multiple businesses as the auxiliary” and improved operation efficiency. In addition, Yanghe has established a digital operation platform of “one object and one code”. We believe that the digital operation platform opens up the data of each node of the channel circulation, which not only prevents non-standard behaviors such as cross regional sales, but also directly tracks the terminal dynamic sales data, so that the production and marketing plan can be formulated more reasonably. In the future, with the further improvement of the distribution system and the help of the digital platform, we judge that the operation efficiency of the company will be further improved.
Investment advice
As the dynamic sales of the company’s products exceeded expectations, we raised the forecast of the company’s revenue of 26.730/29.994 billion yuan in 22-23 years to 30.8/35.421 billion yuan, increased the forecast of revenue of 38.963 billion yuan in 2024, and raised the company’s EPS 6.0 billion yuan in 22-23 years 18 / 6.87 forecast to 6.59/7.64 yuan, adding an EPS forecast of 8.68 yuan in 2024, corresponding to the closing price of 161.30 yuan / share on May 5, 2022. PE is 24.47/21.11/18.58 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating of the company.
Risk tips
The impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations; The dynamic sales of products are less than expected; Food safety issues.
